Chad's Fantasy NASCAR Blog

It’s Super Bowl Sunday!  Without a doubt the most hyped sporting event every year.  It is impossible to not hear about the game and know at least a little of what is going on.  The big deal this year is that Indianapolis, Indiana is playing host.  The mid-sized town of about 780,000 will host the most watched sporting event, with over 100 million people expected to tune in.  Historically the privilege to host this game has been reserved for the large, warm-weathered cities like Miami, Los Angeles, New Orleans, and Atlanta.  The NFL is opening it up to more colder-weather cities with Indianapolis hosting this year, and New York in 2014.

Some reports said that more than 150,000 people flooded the downtown streets of Indy leading up to the Super Bowl.  Another report said there were more than 300,000.  Of course Indianapolis is no stranger to hosting large events, and the people that come into town to party.  Indianapolis and Indiana in general are widely known for two main sports; auto racing and basketball.  The Indianapolis 500 used to bring in 500,000 race fans each year, and still brings in more than 300,000.  Since 1994 the Brickyard 400 has become one of the top races for NASCAR, and the fans know it as well.  Each year more than 300,000 fans come to town to watch the race.

Outside of the 500 and Brickyard 400 Indianapolis has hosted six NCAA basketball Final Fours and will host another one in 2015.  The city is the permanent backup host for the Final Four Tournament, and some feel that it should be the primary host every year.  Indianapolis has also hosted the men’s Big Ten basketball tournament in 8 of the last 11 years including the 2012 tournament.

So, how does all of this benefit NASCAR?  This biggest benefit is to the fans of NASCAR that make the trek to Indianapolis and either partake in the pre-race party, or actually attend the Brickyard 400. 

1. There are a lot more hotel rooms available then ever before.  Since the city was awarded the Super Bowl a few years ago the planning committee knew the need for more rooms, and today there are more than 6,500 hotel rooms available in the city.  In the recent past many fans that wanted to stay in Indianapolis simply couldn’t find a hotel room.  They would have to stay in a city close to an hour outside of Indianapolis and drive in the day of the race.  It should be much easier now to find a room in the city.
2. There will be more things to do in downtown Indianapolis than ever before.  Not all of the entertainment that was put up for the Super Bowl will be taken down.  Some of it will be a permanent fixture of the city for everyone to enjoy year-round.  According to a CNN.com article; The village — a $12 million, three-block, “family-friendly festival” with shops and restaurants — has been built not just for [the Super Bowl], but for the future. “After the fans have long gone, other people are going to be able to come in and use this space for decades,” Boyce said.
3. Indianapolis is a smaller city and uses that size to its advantage.  The downtown area is very walkable with everything close, and all of the attractions within arm’s reach.  Also, the speedway is only about 6 miles from downtown, so it’s easy for the fans to stay there, enjoy all it has to offer, and take a cab or drive to the race.

I doubt NASCAR and the Indianapolis city planners have talked much about how they may be able to reuse some of the Super Bowl ideas for NASCAR events, but once the race gets closer I’m sure they will.  Maybe they can stage a “NASCAR City” or something similar for the fans like they had for the Super Bowl and try to make it more of a vacation destination for race fans and their entire family.

What do you think Indianapolis could apply to the NASCAR marketing and fan appeal that they learn from hosting the Super Bowl?

There have been a lot of drivers changing teams this off-season.  This includes top-tier and middle-of-the-pack guys alike.  Kurt Busch going to Phoenix Racing, A.J. Allmendinger to Penske, and Clint Bowyer to Michael Waltrip Racing are just a few examples that could mix up the chase picture in the 2012 season.  Making the chase and winning the championship is the ultimate goal of every driver.  Making the chase in one year should help a driver’s confidence and odds of making it the next, but of course there are no guarantees.  On average, there is a 4.5 driver turnover per season in the chase.  So, with that in mind, who will make the chase in 2012?

First, let’s take a look at the chasers from 2011 and see which of them can make it again in 2012.

Lock to make it:

-     Tony Stewart: Stewart only missed the chase in 2006, and the defending champ is looking to repeat
-     Carl Edwards: On the top of his game, Edwards will be in the chase again.
-     Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has made all but one chase.  Mr. Consistent will be there again in 2012.
-     Jimmie Johnson:  Is there any doubt that the 5-time champ would make it?
-     Jeff Gordon: He’s Jeff Gordon, and he’s good.
-     Denny Hamlin: Has made it every year he has been a full-time driver.  No reason to think he won’t do it again.

Should be in:

-     Kevin Harvick: Harvick missed the chase in 2004, 2005 & 2009, but looks to be in a groove now.
-     Dale Earnhardt Jr: Earnhardt didn’t make it in 2005, 2007, 2009, & 2010, but may have things figured out with Hendrick Motorsports.
-     Kyle Busch: Busch still annoys a lot of people, but he fact is that he’s very good, and is always a top bet to make the chase.

Out in 2012:

-     Brad Keselowski: Keselowski caught fire to make the chase in 2011, but don’t count on that happening again.
-     Ryan Newman: Newman has missed 4 of last 6 chases.  Odds are pretty good he’ll miss it in 2012.
-     Kurt Busch: Busch is a good driver, but his new team will probably not be able to get the job done.

We’ll have to assume that one of the “should be in” drivers doesn’t make it to get four new chasers in 2012, and be closer to the average turnover of 4.5 drivers.  Who will the new chasers be?

New Chasers:

-     A.J. Allmendinger: He has never made the chase yet in his career, but Allmendinger is getting better, and under Penske he should be in.
-     Greg Biffle: After a tough 2011, Biffle will be out to show everyone he is still a top driver.
-     Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a solid driver, and makes the chase about every other year.  2012 should be his year.
-     Joey Logano: Logano is in a contract year and needs to prove he’s worth the money.  He will.

Of course we won’t know for sure who makes it until September 10^th, so it’s hard to tell who may go on another run like Brad Keselowski did in 2011.  Until then, these are my predictions.  Let me know who you think will or won’t make the chase in 2012.

The NFL playoffs are getting started, and we’re seven weeks away from the Daytona 500.  Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR is ready for its 8^th year of Fantasy NASCAR fun, and the 2012 season.  Last year more than 200 people played, and the overall champ took home $1000! 

This year we’ll have the largest payouts ever with the overall champion guaranteed $1500!!  League champions are still guaranteed $100!  Tell others that you know would want to play and let them in on the fun.

The NASCAR season starts on Feb. 26^th in Daytona, so you have plenty of time to sign up and set your team.

Recruit More Players
As always, we need your help to recruit as many people to play as you can.  The more we get to play, the more fun it will be.  We ask you to tell others about the website and encourage them to sign up.  The goal is to double the number of players and have over 400 so we can have about 10 leagues and keep the payouts high.

Link to the site: http://chadsfantasynascar.com

How to sign up

• Online with a Credit Card or using your PayPal account
• Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR costs $20.95.
• The credit card processing is secure and run through PayPal, so we never see your card number.
• If you played last year you can use your existing id and password by logging in at http://chadsfantasynascar.com (If you can’t remember your password there’s a “forgot password” link that you can use to have a new, random password mailed to you.)
• If you didn’t play last year and want to sign up, you can use this link: http://chadsfantasynascar.com/pswd/signup.cgi
• After you sign up online you will be able to start picking your drivers instantly.

Any winnings or credits you received last year, and not paid via PayPal were carried over to 2012 and your price will be discounted accordingly.

Payouts
The winner of each league is guaranteed $100, and the overall champion is guaranteed $1500!  You can see all of the payout info on the site at: http://chadsfantasynascar.com/payouts.cgi

Rules
The rules are simple.  You get 4 drivers.  How ever many points they score in the race is how many points you get.  Easy!  The only catch is that you can only have 1 driver on your team that made the chase last year.  You’ll get trades each week, so you can change the drivers throughout the season.  To see the official rules you can use the following link: http://chadsfantasynascar.com/rules.cgi  

Updates For 2012

Perfect Week Pool: This year we are introducing the perfect week pool.  This is a pool of money that will go to the first team that picks the drivers that will finish 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th in a race.  The pool will start at $100 this season and increase by $2 each week until someone wins.  If no one wins, then the pool is rolled over into the next season.

Mobile Site: We are in the process of creating mobile web site for those of you with smart phones.  On the site you’ll be able to update your team, view the standings and track stats, and more.

Social Media Sites: Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR is now on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+.  Follow us to get the latest updates and information for the league.

Here’s to another exciting season of NASCAR racing.

Good luck, and Happy Racin’

Each year, before the season starts, I make my NASCAR predictions on who will win the championship, the most races, etc.  Sometimes the predictions come true and sometimes they are way off.  Let’s take a look at this year’s and see how they turned out.

Champion: Prediction: Jimmie Johnson   Actual: Tony Stewart
What can I say?  I went with the safe bet and was wrong.  Jimmie had his “worst” year ever in NASCAR with career lows in point standings (6^th) and wins (2).  His average starting position of 12.9 was his worst since 2002.  To my defense, I did say that I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Carl Edwards won the championship.  He tied for it, so I guess that doesn’t really count.  Congrats to Tony Stewart and his great run in the Chase.  Maybe we should have known he would break Jimmie Johnson’s streak since he was the driver that won the championship back in 2005, before Johnson’s amazing run began.

Most Disappointing: Prediction: Clint Bowyer
I was pretty close on this one.  Bowyer did not make the chase, and finished 13^th in points.  I thought he may be further down in 15^th – 20^th, but overall it wasn’t a good year for Bowyer.  He had 16 top ten finishes in 2011.  The only time he had fewer in a full season was 2006, his first one as a full-time driver.  Bowyer will have to work hard to get back in the chase.

Most Surprising: Prediction: A.J. Allmendinger
I think my prediction of Allmendinger’s season was a darn good one.  He didn’t have to make the chase to be surprising, but he almost did it anyway.  Also, finishing 15^th is a good accomplishment for Allmendinger.  He’s improved each season of his career, and should be a legitimate contender to make the chase next season.

Rookie Of The Year: Prediction: Trevor Bayne    Actual: Andy Lally
Winning the Daytona 500 is a great way to start off your career!  Officially, Bayne wasn’t a rookie in 2011, but how can you say he wasn’t the best first year driver out there?  NASCAR has recognized Andy Lally as the 2011 Rookie Of The Year.  He won by default since he was the only official rookie racing in the Sprint Cup Series.  Lally averaged a 30.8 place finish in 2011 while Bayne averaged a 25.8 place finish.  Both have a ways to go, but Bayne got the big win and shows a lot of promise.

Comeback Driver: Prediction: Brian Vickers    Actual: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
It can be hard to judge the comeback driver of the year, but it’s safe to say that , although Vickers does have a great story with his comeback, his performances on the track weren’t good enough.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. on the other hand, really stepped up in 2011 and proved that he is still a good driver and can contend with the elite.  Earnhardt made the chase and finished 7^th, right in between his teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

Most Wins: Prediction: Tony Stewart     Actual: Tony Stewart
Nailed it!  Five wins for Stewart gets him the award for most wins this season.  The amazing part is that he did this in the Chase, propelling himself to the championship.  Stewart really is a great driver, and I guess we can now call him a pretty good owner.

Kurt Busch’s win last week and Jimmie Johnson’s second place finish show how much movement there can be in the standings with the chase format and new points system.  Both drivers moved up five spots; to 4^th and 5^th, making them contenders for the title once again.  (Busch is actually tied in points for 3^rd.)  Tony Stewart’s 25^th place finish hurt, but definitely didn’t take him out of contention.  He is only 9 points out of the lead, tied for 3^rd place with Kurt Busch.  With the new points format it seems that anyone currently in the top 9 are still in the hunt.  Right now Jeff Gordon holds down that spot, only 19 points out of the lead.

Bad news for Dale Earnhardt Jr, Ryan Newman, and Denny Hamlin though.  They may have to start thinking about next season and be glad they made the chase in 2011.  Earnhardt is 34 points out, Newman 41, and Hamlin 68.  There are simply too many good drivers to be passed up for either one of these guys to have a legitimate chance at the title, although that’s not to say they will give up trying.

So, what have we learned three races into the Chase?  The field is still wide open and there are a lot of drivers with a legitimate chance to take home the title.  Heck, this could be the same line I use when we’re six or seven races into the chase.  Let’s hope so!

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Jeff Gordon
No driver gets around the Kansas Speedway like Jeff Gordon.  His 8.1 place average finish is the best, his two wins are tied for the most, and the eight top five and nine top ten finishes at the track are also the most at the track.  In short, Jeff Gordon is awesome at Kansas.  His worst finish of 39^th was back in 2006.  Since then he has five consecutive top five finishes here.  His only other finish outside of the top ten was in 2004 when he finished 13^th.  Gordon is also averaging an 8.8 place finish over the last five races this season.  Sounds like a good recipe for a top five run and possibly another win.

Alternate Chaser: Tony Stewart
If Jeff Gordon is the No. 1 driver at Kansas, then Tony Stewart has to be 1B.  Like Gordon, Stewart has raced at Kansas 11 times and has two victories.  The slight difference is that Stewart only has five top five and eight top ten finishes at the track.  His 11.9 place average finish here isn’t quite up to Gordon’s mark, but pretty close.  In 2007 & 2008 Steward finished a horrible 40^th and 39^th, so it would appear that he’s gotten the bad luck out of the way and he can battle for another top five or win this weekend in Kansas.

Greg Biffle
I guess Biffle has to be driver 1C in Kansas since his record is almost as impressive as Gordon and Stewart’s.  The Biff is averaging an 8.3 place finish at the track, has two wins, six top five and seven top ten finishes in ten career races.  This has to be a big no brainer to get Biffle on your team this week.  He had a bad finish last week, but don’t let that turn you off.  Biffle will be primed and ready to go this weekend.  He knows Kansas is a track that he can dominate and have a chance to win the race.

A.J. Allmendinger
Allmendinger has four career races at the Kansas Speedway.  In his first race, in 2008, he finished 9^th.  In Allmendinger’s second race at the track he finished 17^th; third race, 10^th, and fourth race earlier this year he finished 27^th.  See the trend?  That of course means that Allmending will finish in the top ten this weekend.  Well, maybe not, but he has shown that he can get a good finish at the track, and has a little bit of momentum after a 7^th place run last weekend.  32% of you owned Allmendinger last week, so there is still a chance to put him on your team and gain points.

Dark Horse: David Ragan
David Ragain really is a darkhorse for this race.  He does have one top ten finish in Kansas over his five appearances at the track, but a 17.6 place average finish isn’t too impressive.  Outside of the 2009 race where Ragan finished 35^th, he actually hasn’t done too badly.  He has finishes of 13^th, 16^th, 8^th, and 16^th.  These aren’t great, but finishing in the top 15 or top 20 isn’t horrible either and it’s steady points.  Ragan was on less than 5% of the fantasy teams last week.  If you need to make up points, he could be your guy.  Odds are good that he’ll be battling for a top 15 finish, and may even sneak into the top ten.

Back in January I posted about how Richard Petty regained ownership of his race team and was going to lead the day-to-day operations.  The question was, would he make a difference, and would his cars win?

The quick answer is, yes he has made a difference, and his cars have won.  Neither of Petty’s two cars made the chase, but Marcos Ambrose has won a race, and A.J. Allmendinger is sitting 15^th in points.  Now, these aren’t earth shattering performances by the Richard Petty Motorsports drivers, but it does show improvement and that The King is making an impact.

This is the 5^th season for Allmendinger in the Sprint Cup Series and he’s improved each season.  In 2007 he finished 44^th in the standings, and last year was up to 19^th.  With eight races left in the chase Allmendinger is 15^th in points; only four points out of 12^th.  It is a realistic goal for Allmendinger to get up to 12^th place and build some momentum and hype for the 2012 season, when he should have a very good shot to make the chase.

Through 28 races in 2011 Allmendinger has eight finishes of 21^st or worse.  If he could have turned four of those finishes into 20^th place or better he would have received about 14 more points and been a serious contender to beat Denny Hamlin out of the last spot for the chase.  If Allmendinger can get a few more top twenty finishes next season he will be a contender for the chase.

Marcos Ambrose has won a race this season along with four top five and eight top ten finishes, but finds himself down in 23^rd.  He has been way too inconsistent to say he’s close to contending to make the chase in 2012.  With those top ten finishes Ambrose had had some bad races as well.  After 28 races in 2011 Ambrose has nine finishes 25^th or worse, and thirteen finishes outside of the top 20.  He really needs to find a way to cut those numbers in half before we talk about him making the chase and giving Richard Petty a strong second driver.

Can Ambrose make the improvements?  This is his fourth season in the Sprint Cup Series and his best season, points wise, was in 2009 when he finished 18^th.  His one win, four top five and 8 top ten finishes are all career highs, but overall it appears that he hasn’t figured everything out that’s needed.  I don’t see him becoming a challenger any time soon, or ever.

Petty is making strides to becoming relevant again, mostly with Allmendinger, but it’s obvious more work needs to be done.  I’m sure they will be working hard for the rest of the season, and in the off-season to get both drivers more consistent and have Allmendinger contending for the chase.  Richard Petty knows how to race, so if there is anyone that can help coach up drivers, it would be him.

Every year around July and August people in NASCAR start talking about what drivers have expiring contracts, where they will race next season, and will they leave their current team early to go to the new team.  It seems the talk hasn’t been as prevalent in 2011, but there are some drivers signing with new teams and other drivers that have re-signed with their current teams.

Let’s take a look at some drivers that we know have signed new contracts, some that may sign new ones, and a few crew chiefs that have been let go in 2011.

J.J. Yeley & Front Row Motorsports
It was announced in mid-July that Yeley will drive for Front Row Motorsports for the remainder of the 2011 season. 

Kasey Kahne & Mark Martin
We already know that Kasey has signed to race for Rick Hendrick in 2012 and beyond, taking Mark Martin’s spot.  Mark Martin has already said that he’s not ready to retire after the season, so who will sign Martin for the 2012 season, and will be still be a full-time driver?

Brian Vickers & Red Bull
Sort of related to Kasey Kahne is Brian Vickers and the Red Bull sponsorship.  With Kahne leaving after this season, and Brian Vickers’ contract up at the end of the year, Red Bull will supposedly reduce their involvement in NASCAR and not sponsor the 83 and 4 cars next season.  Now the question is, where will Brian Vickers end up?

Clint Bowyer & RCR
Bowyer is working with Richard Childress Racing to re-sign with the team.  He seems confident that a deal will be done, and doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to finalize it as he’s focusing on making the chase this season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. & Hendrick Motorsports
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has proven me and others wrong by turning in a very solid performance week in and week out.  At the beginning of the season Rick Hendrick said he wanted to sign Earnhardt past 2011 and the two sides are working on that now.  Earnhardt has his sister Kelley doing the negotiating for him.   The two sides said that they expect the talks to be finalized in early September.  When this deal is finished Hendrick will have three of the sport’s most popular drivers, and two of the most successful of all time locked up for long-term deals.  I would imagine other owners couldn’t help but be jealous. 

Carl Edwards & Roush Fenway Racing
In early August Edwards and Roush Fenway Racing agreed to a new multi-year deal that begins in 2012.  Edwards has been with Roush since the beginning and it looks like he’ll be staying there for quite a while longer.

Juan Montoya & Earnhardt Ganassi Racing
Montoya has agreed in principle to a contract with EGR for the 2012 season.

David Ragan
Ragan’s contract is up at the end of the 2011 season as well, but there has been no word of extension talks or him negotiating with other teams.  Undoubtedly he is in talks with someone, but nothing has been reported yet.

Joe Gibbs Racing
It’s no secret that Joe Gibbs Racing wants to add a fourth team and could do it in 2012.  They were pressing pretty hard to get Carl Edwards, but weren’t able to.  I don’t know if they’d be willing to sign Mark Martin since he’s up in age and already “retired” once.  David Ragan or Brian Vickers could be a possibility although JGR would probably like to get a higher profile driver that could contend for championships immediately.

Crew Chiefs Get The Boot
Among drivers that are changing rides, there have been several crew chiefs that have been relieved of their duties with their teams already this season.  Here are a few of them:

Todd Berrier has been let go from Richard Childress Racing and Jeff Burton’s 31 car.  Luke Lambert has taken his place.  This is the first stint as a Cup series crew chief for Lambert.  You can’t blame Richard Childress for making this decision.  Burton has been very disappointing this season, sitting 24^th in points, and something had to change.

Brian Pattie has been released from the No. 42 car of Juan Montoya for Earnhardt Ganassi Racing.  He has been replaced by Jim Pohlman.  After making the chase with Brian Pattie in 2009 Juan Montoya has leveled off as a driver missing the chase in 2010 and not in position to make it this season either.

Greg Erwin was let go in mid-July by Roush Fenway Racing.  He was the crew chief on the No. 16 car driven by Greg Biffle.  Erwin has been replaced by Matt Puccia.  Erwin has been Greg Biffle’s crew chief since 2007.  Puccia was Paul Menard’s crew chief in 2010 for the Nationwide series.

Mike Shiplett was out as crew chief for the No. 43 car of A.J. Allmendinger, owned by Richard Petty Motorsports, in late July.  Greg Erwin didn’t stay unemployed long after being let go by Roush Fenway Racing.  He replaced Shiplett as crew chief for Allmendinger.

So, there it is, the 2011 edition of the silly season; so far anyway.  We’ll see what tomorrow brings.  Have you heard other stories or more details about the contract talks going on?  Leave a comment and let everyone else know.

A couple of weeks ago NASCAR announced that they will start the season a week later in 2012, eliminating the off-week after the third race of the season.  They’re doing this for two reasons.  One is to add a week to the off-season.  As it is, they race until the week before Thanksgiving and only have 12 or 13 weeks until the season starts up again in Daytona.  The other reason is anticipating the NFL going to an 18 game schedule.  NASCAR wants to avoid having the Daytona 500 too close to the Super Bowl.    This is a smart move by NASCAR and definitely the right thing to do, but they really missed their chance to fix the schedule.

Everyone knows the NASCAR season is way too long, and many of the races are too long as well.  Even some drivers, like Dale Earnhardt Jr, have voiced their displeasure with the schedule and length of races.  Back in late January Earnhardt said, “The Pocono races are entirely too long.  I think NASCAR should shoot for a three-hour or three-hour and 15-minute televised event, and try to fit into that sort of time frame. But it can’t be done at all times. I understand. I think you’ve got to have races like the 600-miler [Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte] and the Daytona 500 and things like that — but there are certain events [that should be shortened].”  Amen, Dale!  I’ve said it before in previous posts, and I’m going to say it again.  NASCAR needs to shorten the season.

Schedule History
In 1996 there were 31 races on the schedule.  It expanded to 32 races in 1997 and 33 in 1998.  As recently as 2000 there were 34 races in the schedule and things seemed to be working out just fine.  The sport was as popular as ever.  Of course, this wasn’t good enough for NASCAR and they had to keep expanding, trying to make more money.  They added two more race dates to the schedule for the 2001 season giving us the ultra-short off-season we have today.

Baseball has a 5 month off-season.  Football has about a 6 month off-season.  Why does NASCAR think they need 36 races spread over 40 weeks?  Isn’t the saying, leave them wanting more?  After the marathon NASCAR season is over does anyone really want more?  I know after the NFL season fans can’t wait for next year and are always excited about it.  Heck, NFL fans can’t wait for the draft each April.  NASCAR fans seem to give a sigh of relief when their season is over.

Changes for 2011
Late in the 2010 season NASCAR announced that the Atlanta Motor Speedway and Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California would lose races.  Why reward these race dates to other tracks and not shorten the season?  They gave Kansas a second race, and are going to the Kentucky Speedway for the first time in 2011.  Why?  Why not stay with one race in Kansas, and take a date away from Texas or Phoenix and give it to Kentucky if they want a race there?  This time NASCAR missed a golden opportunity to actually shorten the season.

If your sport is losing viewers and attendance is down across the boards, is it smart to keep with the norm, and not shake things up a bit?  I understand that there are TV contracts in place and revenue streams they’re depending on, but sometimes you have to trim dead branches off a tree to allow it to grow.   Look at what happened to the NHL a few years ago.  They were close to folding and had to make some major changes to survive.  Now they’re doing better than ever.  I’m not suggesting NASCAR is nearly as bad off as the NHL was, but why chance it?  NASCAR should have taken action when they had the chance.   I’m sure they could have negotiated with ABC and FOX to get the TV contracts modified.

A 34 race schedule with an 8 race chase could be ideal for NASCAR.  This would eliminate two weeks of competing with the NFL at the end of the season, make their “playoffs” two months (and more in line with the traditional sports’ playoff length), and give them a 15 week off-season, allowing everyone to catch their breath and give time to actually want more.

Do you think NASCAR will ever take the hit and drop two or more races from the schedule to help fix what’s wrong with the sport?  Do you think the number of races is part of the problem, or is it something else?  Leave a comment and let everyone else know what you’re thinking.

So NASCAR made a rule to protect the “regulars” in the Nationwide series and prevent a Cup Series driver from winning their championship.  Drivers now have to declare which championship they’re driving for, and they won’t accumulate points in the other series whenever they run in it.  That sounds like a good idea, and probably is, but who would have thought the rule would protect the Cup Series drivers from a 20-year-old Nationwide driver?

Trevor Bayne threw a wrench in the system.  There’s no way a kid that just turned 20 should be able to compete with greats like Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, and a slew of others.  At Daytona he did more than compete with them, he won and showed that a kid with skill and a good team behind him can win any race he enters, even the largest most prestigious race of the season.

It wasn’t a fluke win either.  The race wasn’t shortened by weather or bad track conditions.  There wasn’t a huge wreck that took out all of the top contenders, and no one ran out of gas.  Bayne won the race because he had a great car and showed that right now he’s a driver that can win any time.

The kid does the unthinkable by winning the Daytona 500 and gets a whopping 0 points in the Sprint Cup standings for the effort.  Why, you may ask?  Because, before the season started his Sprint Cup schedule was going to consist of 16 or 17 races to get experience.  He declared he’d be racing the full Nationwide Series schedule and running for that championship. 

Now that he won the Daytona 500 and raced in the other two Cup races this season he should be tied for 18^th in points.  How can NASCAR allow the Daytona 500 winner not be eligible for the championship?  I know what the rules are, but come on.  Bayne is obviously ready to take this on and probably contend to make the chase.

What about sponsorship you may be asking?  Really?  He has a sponsor for 16 or 17 races.  I don’t think it would be hard to have Motorcraft pony up for the other 19 or 20 races.  If they don’t I’m sure there are other companies out there that would live to sponsor the Daytona 500 champ.  If given the opportunity I can’t imagine Bayne turning it down.  You’d be a fool not too.

What are your thoughts?  Should NASCAR have considered allowing Trevor Bayne to race for the Sprint Cup championship and not the Nationwide?  Are there other issues that doing this could have brought up?

There are still a couple of weeks until the NASCAR season gets under way, but why not take a stab at some predictions for the 2011 season.  Each year I take a guess at who will win the Championship, most races, etc. and this season will be no different.  Last year I got two of them right, was way off on two, and pretty close on one.  Maybe I can do better in 2011.

Champion: Jimmie Johnson
Five championships in a row; are you kidding me?  Until he gets beat, you simply can’t bet against Jimmie Johnson.  His championship in 2010 was easily the most difficult of the five, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, or someone else got hot at the right time and broke Johnson’s streak.  That alone isn’t enough to scare me away.  There’s no reason to think he can’t win a 6^th championship in a row.

Most Disappointing: Clint Bowyer
I don’t say this thinking Clint will have an absolutely horrible season, but he is one of the 2010 Chasers that may not make it in 2011.  Bowyer has made the chase three of the last four seasons, but 2010 wasn’t anything special for him, finishing 12^th in the standings, and having six finishes of 30^th or worse.  Bowyer finishing 15^th – 20^th in the 2011 standings would be a big disappointment, which is where he may end up.     

Most Surprising: A.J. Allmendinger
Don’t ask me why, but I have a feeling that A.J. Allmendinger is on track to have a break-out year.  In his four seasons in Sprint Cup he’s made a steady improvement in the standings going from 44^th place in 2007 to 19^th place in 2010.  Now that Richard Petty has control over RPM again maybe it will be what’s needed to put Allmendinger over the hump and get him contending for a Chase spot.  He may not make the chase, but if he can finish 13^th or even 14^th in the standings, that would be a great season.

Rookie Of The Year: Trevor Bayne
Trevor gets this award by default since I haven’ t heard of any other rookies in 2011.  He did alright in one race last season, so maybe he’ll do well in his limited schedule this year.

Comeback Driver: Brian Vickers
Vickers had health issues in 2010 with blood clots in both lungs and his left leg.  He was forced to sit out a majority of the season, missing all races from May on (11^th race).  Vickers made the chase in 2009, and even though he missed 25 races in 2010 he had enough points to finish 40^th.  Brian has proved that he’s a good driver and can collect top ten finishes.  Now that he’s medically cleared to drive again he should be contending for top ten finishes on a weekly basis.

Most Wins: Tony Stewart
Denny Hamlin had the most wins in 2010, and Jimmie Johnson had the second most, but Stewart has the skill and equipment to win a lot of races and could compile more wins than both of them in 2011.  Stewart only won two races in 2010, which is a low number for him.  He’s averaging just over 3 wins per season with 39 in 12 years.  His high-water mark is 6 wins in the 2000 season when he finished 6^th in the point standings.  2011 is his third year of being the owner/driver of the No. 14 Old Spice Chevrolet.  He should have all his ducks in a row and be ready for a great 2011.

Have predictions of your own?  Leave a comment and let everyone know.