Race 15 – LifeLock 400 at Michigan Recap

So, I'm a couple days late in my recap...oh well.

The race had its moments of excitement and overall wasn't too bad. It was typical Michigan with long green flag runs and fuel mileage playing a big part at the end of the race. Unfortunately for me, the place I was watching the end of the race had Directv, which went out with 4 laps to go. I did get to hear the "overtime" on the radio.

How did my picks do this week? I had the 1st, 2nd, and 5th place finishers, with some others that finished in the teeens.

Four with a real shot to win:
Kyle Busch - 13th place finish. Didn't look like his dominating self.
Tony Stewart - Nice 5th place finish
Denny Hamlin - 14th place finish was about 5 or 10 spots lower than expected.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Finally, a win!

Two who should do well:
Martin Truex Jr. - 17th place finish was disappointing.
Kasey Kahne - Another strong run with a 2nd place finish.

Darkhorse:
Reed Sorenson - Horrible race for Reed, finishing 34th. Was never in contention


The fantasy standings are getting interesting. I'll do a full writeup on them after the next race at Infineon Raceway.

Race 15 – LifeLock 400 at Michigan Fantasy Preview

This week’s race is at the "D" shaped, Michigan International Speedway. This race could either be very exciting, or very boring. Michigan is a wide track that gives the drivers plenty of room to maneuver and could have very long green flag runs. There have been races here without a caution, which makes it pretty uneventful. If one driver starts to dominate and lap the field it could get ugly early. Races without many cautions also mean it could come down to who gets the best fuel mileage in the race. Many drivers have run out of gas on the last lap at Michigan.

On the other hand, it could be an exciting race. Michigan has two or three racing lanes on the front part of the D, and will really tempt the drivers to push the limits. Based on the action we saw last week at Pocono, I’m going to guess we see a good amount of side-by-side action, and a good race this week.

Here's an interesting stat from NASCAR.com:

A Dodge or Ford has won each of the last 13 Michigan races, dating back to Jeff Gordon's victory in a Chevrolet in June 2001. Bobby Labonte leads all full-time drivers with three wins there, while five drivers have two.

Now, on to my picks…

Four with a real shot to win
Kyle Busch
Why not pick Kyle? After last week's disappointing 43rd place finish, he'll want to come out running hard in Michigan. The bad thing is that he doesn't have much success here (only two top 10s in six races), and his practice times weren't very good (27th fastest). With a normal driver I'd say to stay away from them with stats this bad, but come race day Kyle performs.

Tony Stewart
Tony has been solid at Michigan recently. In his last three here he has a 10th and two 3rd place finishes. In eighteen career races Tony has one win, eight top 5s, and twelve top 10s. His 12.0 average finish is also a strong stat. Taking out an accident in 2006, in which he finished 41st, Tony has all top 5’s and one 10th place finish since 2005. I like Stewart to run upfront all day and get the win.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
It’s been a while since I’ve talked about Dale Jr. Historically he hasn’t done great at MIS. In seventeen career races here he only has two top 5s and five top 10s, with a 17.2 average finish. He has had some success here recently. In three of his last four races he’s finished 5th, 6th, and 3rd. He’s had a solid season so far, and this could be a track where he gets that elusive win.

Denny Hamlin
What track doesn’t Denny run good on? In two of his last three here he’s finished 5th and 9th. He’s a solid driver that knows how to go fast, and not wreck. Denny will be in the top 10 most of the day, and will be challenging for the win at the end.

Two others that should do well
Martin Truex Jr.
Martin has been close at Michigan recently finishing 2nd in last two here. I don’t know if he’ll do that good this weekend, but he should at least finish in the top 10.

Kasey Kahne
I never thought Kasey would win last week. I don't really think he'll win again this weekend, but he should carry some momentum from the win into Michigan and have another solid run. He has finished 4th and won in two of the last four here. Another solid top 10 run should be doable for Kasey on Sunday.

Darkhorse
Reed Sorenson
Reed has had a tough season so far. He’s sitting thirtysecond in points, and his only top 10 finish was 5th at Daytona. Michigan could be his second top 10 of the season. He has two top 10 finishes here in his last four races. I don’t think Reed will win on Sunday, but he should contend for a top 10 finish.

Race 13 - Best Buy 400 at Dover Recap

Wow, what a boring race that was. It started out with some action when poor old Elliot Sadler had his car rammed and battered by Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin. After that there was no action what so ever in the race. I fell asleep, woke up about 50 laps later, and didn't miss a thing.

I know everyone said it would take a while to figure out these new cars, but we're over 1/4 of the way through the season, and the races are getting worse, not better. NASCAR needs to admit there's a problem, and do something about the awful racing going on. Maybe the car needs tweaked or something to allow for some passing. I miss the close finishes and dramatic passing during the races. I'm sick of the lead only changing because of pit stops.

Well, on to the racing action, and how my picks fared. Not to toot my own horn, but I have to say my picks this week did pretty good. I advised you to pick the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, & 8th place finishers.
Four with a real shot to win:
Carl Edwards - 2nd place finish, and ran very strong all day
Greg Biffle - Looked like the car to beat early and came home 3rd
Jeff Burton - Solid run, picking his way through the field to finish 8th
Matt Kenseth - Proved he still has it, finishing 4th

Two others that should do well:
Mark Martin - Mark hung around early, but faded into 23rd place
Kyle Busch - The kid won again. He's amazing

Darkhorse:
Martin Truex Jr. - Solid 6th place finish. He ran a very good race

Chad's Fantasy NASCAR Recap
Buchsmoto took over the top spot from highlife, but only by 4 points! There's a 276 point cushion between 2nd place and 3rd.

Zimsracing and redvette were the big gainers of the week, jumping up 6 spots each.

ole_gordo took home the high point award with 570.

Next week's race is on Sunday in Pocono.
Good luck, and happy racin!

Race 13 – Best Buy 400 at Dover Fantasy Preview

This week’s race is at the “Monster Mile” oval in Dover, Delaware. Races here can be long and grueling on the drivers, as the last 4 have an average length of 3 hours and 37 minutes with close to 17 lead changes and 10 cautions.

So, will Kasey Kahne carry the momentum of winning the past two weekends into Dover? The short answer is no. He’s horrible at Dover. In eight career races here he only has one top 10 finish and averages a 25.2 place finish. He may get a top 10 at best, but a more realistic finish for him is in the top 15.

Four drivers with a real shot to win

Carl Edwards
Carl normally dominates on the 1.5 mile ovals, but he’s had good runs on the Monster Mile as well. Over the last three races he has a win, 3rd, 2nd place finishes. In seven career races here he has three top 5’s, and four top 10’s while averaging a 9.1 place finish. Carl is running good, and that should continue this weekend.

Greg Biffle
The Biff has been money at Dover. In his last four races here he has a 2nd, 6th, 5th, 8th place finish. In only eleven career races here he has one win, three top 5’s, and six top 10’s with an average finishing position of 12.9. Five of those top 10s came in his last six races. Greg hasn’t closed on his new contract with Roush yet, so look for him to prove how good he is to other teams interested in signing him. Qualifying on the pole is a great start to the weekend for the Biff.

Jeff Burton
Jeff definitely has experience on his side at Dover. In twenty eight career races here he has one win, six top 5’s, and 11 top 10’s with a 16.9 average finish. Early in his career it was tough to guess where he would finish. In his first four races here (1994 & 1995) he finished 20th or worse every time. In five of the next eight (1996 – 1999) he finished in the top 10, then in 2000 & 2001 20th place was his best finish.

Since then (2002 onwards, a span of 12 races) Jeff has averaged a 9.9 place finish with one win, four top 5s, and six top 10s. If you take out a 33rd place finish in the fall of 2004 when he got in a wreck Jeff’s worst finish in that span is 14th.

In his career he has finished 23 races, and had an average finish of 11.6 in them. His last DNF was the fall of 2004, and he’s had a 7th, 1st, 4th in three of the last four here, so look for his string of good runs to continue.

Don't let the 38th qualifying position scare you. In eight of his races here Jeff has started 30th or worse and managed two top 5's, five top 10s, and two 11th place finishes. He's patient enough to pick his way through the field and get you a top 10 finish.

Matt Kenseth
I haven’t said much about Kenseth this year. He’s having a quiet if not disappointing season so far, sitting 16th in points. He has managed to string two top 10 finishes together over the past couple of points races. Look for him to keep that trend going this weekend.

In three of his last four here he has a win, 5th and 10th place finishes. In 18 career races he has 1 win, five top 5’s, and ten top 10’s, averaging a 15.3 place finish. In the 14 races that Matt has finished he’s averaged a 10.9 place finish. He has had three accidents and one blown engine, but if he can avoid those things, he should contend for the win.

Two others that should do well:

Mark Martin
If you want to talk about experience at a track, Mark Martin has more of it at Dover than all others. In his impressive career he’s raced here 43 times with four Wins, twenty top 5’s, and twenty seven top 10s with a 12.7 average finish. Of the 43 races he’s been in a wreck or had engine problems only nine times. In the 34 races he’s finished (no accident or engine troubles) he’s averaged a 7.9 finish and was out of the top 10 only seven times.

Mark hasn’t been in an accident or had engine problems at Dover since Spring of 2002. He’s finished 4th, 7th, and 9th in three of his last four here, so look for him to keep that going.

Mark had a poor qualifying run, earning the 30th starting position, but his career here has been like Burton's. Just because he qualified poorly doesn't mean he'll run bad. In five other races he's qualified 30th or worse, and managed to get three top 5's, so he's probably worth keeping on your team.

Kyle Busch
How could anyone bet against Kyle now? Right now the kid dominates every race he’s in. In six career races at Dover he has four top 5’s. His worst finish was 40th in the fall of 2006 when he had engine problems. I don't think he'll have engine problems this weekend, and should be in top 10 all night.

The kid continues his domination at just about everything as he qualified in the 3rd position. Look for him to challenge Biffle for the lead quickly.

DarkHorse

I almost picked Jamie McMurray for this, but I have to go with Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. has only raced here four times, but does have one win and two top 10’s. The last two weeks have been less than impress for Truex, so he needs to turn it up, and I think he will this weekend, especially since he considers this his home track. There'll be a lot of friends and family in the stands that he wants to impress.

Ragan’s breakout season; RCR getting a 4th car in ’09; Trouble getting sponsors

David Ragan’s breakout season
David Ragan is having a great season in his second full year in the Sprint Cup Series. He’s currently in 13th place after slipping one spot from the 12th place Coca-Cola 600 finish. In an interview earlier in May when David was 12th in points he said, “I still got a lot of hard racing in front of us” to get into the chase. “Don’t want to stop at 12th. Want to move up to 11th, 10th, and so on.

He says he’s better this year since he doesn’t push at the start of races anymore, and he’s smarter driver now that he’s doing everything for the second time.

Last year, in his rookie season, David had two top 5’s and three top 10’s with an average finish of 24.5. This season David already has two top 5’s and three top 10’s with an average finish of 16.33.

I don’t know if David will be able to keep the good run going and make the chase, but he has the potential to do it. When asked about his success he said that he’s not surprised about it, and expects to contend for the chase.


4th Car in 2009 for RCR
Richard Childress Racing will add a 4th car to their team in 2009, and it will be #33. General Mill will be the sponsor since they’re leaving Petty, and they want a driver by June to start a marketing scheme with him in it.

They don’t have a driver for the car yet, but current General Mill driver Bobby Labonte says he’s staying with Petty racing although he has been linked to moving to RCR. A couple of other candidates for the spot are Scott Wimmer and Martin Truex Jr. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards contracts are up at the end of this year, so they may be candidates also.

Bobby Labonte Labonte may be a better choice since he’s won a championship and guaranteed to start the first five races, and he already has established a relationship with the sponsor.

So, what do you think? Who should RCR get to be their driver for the new team?

Sponsor Issues
Several teams are having issues getting and keeping sponsors for their teams. It costs teams about $300,000 to $400,000 per race for a car, which adds up quickly to $10.8 Million to $14.4 Million to finance a since car for an entire season. With these high costs it’s easy to understand how teams can get into financial trouble.

There are only a handful of teams that have legitimate shots at winning races and making the chase for the championship, so it’s also easy to understand why corporations don’t want to shell out $10 - $15 Million for sponsorship. You’re seeing more teams have multiple sponsors to help pay for an entire season.

There are some sponsors looking to get out of their contracts and/or restructure them. UPS and Office Depot are a couple of the sponsors that are looking to get out of their contracts or restructure them.

Even established teams like Robert Yates are having problems. They didn’t have a sponsor for six races already this season. Their team has been on the decline since the 1999 championship. Yates has a technical alliance with Roush which has helped them get back on track.

BAM racing is going to part time schedule due to lack of sponsors

While on NASCAR Now on ESPN, Dale Jarrett suggested cutting some races to save money and reduce the financial strain on the teams and corporations. I like Dale’s idea, and even suggested it myself in an earlier blog (How To Bring Back The NASCAR Viewers). Trimming the schedule to 28 – 32 races would be nice, but there’s no way they’ll turn down the revenue that TV coverage brings for the races.

Leave a comment letting us know what you think.

Race 11 – Dodge Challenger 500 at Darlington Preview

Another Saturday night race, this time at Darlington Raceway. The recently repaved 1.366 mile oval should be faster than normal. Look for speeds to be up, and possibly the number of drivers sliding into the wall early.

Back in early March Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Greg Biffle did some tire testing at Darlington for Goodyear. Could this give them a bit of an edge since they have a few more laps on the new surface than other driver?


Kyle Busch
With his strong run last week, Kyle Busch was able to pass Jeff Burton in the standings to regain the top spot he once held after the 5th race of the season. He’s only raced at Darlington three times, with just one top 10 finish, so it doesn’t look too good for him Saturday night. However, Kyle has four straight top 10 finishes, three of them in the top 3, so momentum is on his side. The new surface will also be fast and slick, which are conditions Kyle loves. Will the momentum and new surface carry him to a top 10 finish or better on Saturday?

Jimmie Johnson
After climbing up to 4th in points a couple weeks ago, Jimmie has had some mediocre runs at best, and has slipped a few spots to 7th. I expect Jimmie will be back to his dominating self this week. He has eight career top 10s in only nine races. He should be running up front all night.

Jeff Gordon
Jeff has looked good in some races and didn’t get the results due to wrecks, but had the opposite happen last week when he wasn’t running very good, but found himself in 9th place when the race ended. Expect all that to be different this week. Jeff has absolutely dominated at Darlington in his career. He has seven career wins, fifteen top 5s, and eighteen top 10s in only 27 races. Look for Jeff to be challenging for the lead the entire race.

Ryan Newman
This team has been up and down all season, and can’t seem to keep a good streak going. They’ve finished 1st at Daytona and 43rd in Phoenix. They’re sitting 11th in points right now, and must string together 5 or 6 consecutive top 10s to solidify themselves in the chase. They currently have two top 10s in a row, and should have a third one after this race. Ryan has finished in the top 10 here in the last 3 races, and has 6 career top 10s in 9 career races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Jr. continues to put a solid season together. Every time I think he’ll have an off week, he proves me wrong and runs well. Last season it seemed like he mailed in a couple races, but this year he seemed focused every race, for the entire race. In an interview on April 3rd Jr. said, “It’s good to have other people you’re motivated to please.” Guess he was sick of Theresa. Look for him to stay motivated and please Hendrick Racing again this week.

Four drivers with a real shot to win
· Jeff Gordon – 1st, 2nd, 2nd in last 3 – 7 career wins, 18 career top 10s, 15 top 5s, in 27 races. How can you go against that success?
· Jimmie Johnson – 3rd, 4th, 7th in last 3 – 8 career top 10s in 9 races with 2 wins, 5 top 5s. He’ll make up for the 30th place finish last week.
· Ryan Newman – 4th, 6th, 5th in last 3 – 6 career top 10s, 5 top 5s, in 9 career races. Flyin’ Ryan likes to go fast, and the new surface at Darlington will be fast.
· Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 8th, 5th, 8th – 4 consecutive top 10 finishes, 6 career top 10 in 13 races. He’s gonna win soon enough…

Two others that should do well
· Greg Biffle – 2 Wins in the last 3 here. Tough to go against wins, but we’ll see if he can keep it up while contract talks are ongoing.
· Denny Hamlin – 2nd, 10th in only 2 races here. He injured his hip playing basketball this week, but he won’t feel that once the adrenaline kicks in for the race.

Dark Horse
· Martin Truex Jr. – 11th and 14th place finish in his only two races here and coming off a season best 5th place finish at Richmond, Martin should have confidence on his side for this race.

Race 7 – Samsung 500 Preview

For those people that keep track of the tire issues you’ll be happy to know that the much complained about tire used in the Atlanta race won’t be used in this race at Texas. Usually Goodyear uses the same tire, but this year they decided not to since there were so many complaints. The track owner is obviously happy about this, since the tire their going to use produced two great finishes last year.

After a 3rd place finish last week Jeff Burton jumped up 3 spots in the standings to take the lead. Over the past four races Jeff is averaging a 4.75 place finish, with one win. Texas is a track that Jeff has done well at over the past couple of years. He’s taken home two 6th place finishes and a win. With the hot streak he’s on, and the fact that the does well at Texas should be good news for Burton fans. Don’t let his 35th place qualifying effort scare you away. He’s only qualified better than 20th twice in Texas, and has done very well. This is a wide track that allows for some good racing. Jeff should be able to make his way to the front of the field.

Jeff Gordon had a good run last week and moved up to 9th in points, and looks to continue the trend at Texas. In the first four races at this track Jeff Gordon did horrible, not finishing better than 25th. The next four races he averaged a 3.25 place finish, but the three races after that (when they started having two races per year in Texas) he didn’t finish better than 14th. The good news is that over the last three races he’s averaged a 6.67 place finish. So, what does this mean? Well, it looks like Jeff is streaky here. He’s had three top 10 finishes in a row, is he now due for a run of bad luck in Texas? Jeff will start out in 18th, which isn’t great, but if they can perform some in race tweaks he should make it to the front.

With his win last week Denny Hamlin moved up the most spots in the championship standings, 7 places, up to 8th. He’s done well at this track in his career with 4 top 10’s in 5 tries. Look for him to continue to climb in the standings as his 14th place qualifying spot should let him get into the top 10 quickly and run there all day.

Drivers with a real shot to win
· Matt Kenseth – 2nd, 2nd, 2nd in 3 of last 4 and qualified 8th this week
· Martin Truex Jr. – 3rd, 7th, 8th in 3 of last 4, qualified 12th this week
· Jeff Burton – 6th, 1st, 6th in 3 of last 4, qualified 35th this week
· Jeff Gordon – 7th, 4th, 9th in last 3, qualified 18th this week
· Kevin Harvick – 10th, 3rd, 5th in 3 of last 4, qualified 21st this week

Two others that should do well:
o Jamie McMurray – 9th & 5th in last 2, qualified 32nd. He’ll have to make some moves early to get up in the standings, but his confidence has to be up after last week, and he should do well.
o Denny Hamlin – 9th, 4th, 10th in 3 of last 4, qualified 14th