Race 16 – Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Infineon Raceway Preview

Sonoma. The first of two road courses in the NASCAR season. The good thing about this race is that you shouldn’t hear people complaining about the new car since it really shouldn’t have an affect on this race. It’s always tough to pass on this track, but there are a few places on the course that they can, and we should see some good action.

A road course also means there’ll be drivers who aren’t regulars to NASCAR in the race, trying to show their skills. (Think Boris Said, Ron Fellows, and Brian Simo to name a few.)

Four drivers with a real shot to win
Jeff Gordon
15 races here, five wins, nine top 5s, 11 top 10s, and an average finish of 9.7. He’s won two and finished 7th in three of the last four here. I know Jeff hasn’t looked real good lately, but he is an awesome road course driver. He’s probably the only NASCAR regular that could go to F1 and win. He’ll win on Sunday.

Boris Said
Boris isn’t an every week driver, but road courses are his specialty, and teams hire him just for the two road courses. He’s finished 6th, and has two 9ths in the last four here. He averages a 9.7 place finish in the races that he completes all the laps….Which means he has to avoid the wrecks and he’s virtually guaranteed a top 10 finish, and should be contending for the win.

Jeff Burton
Jeff’s career numbers aren’t great at Infineon Raceway, averaging a 19.4 place finish, but he has three top 10 finishes in the last four here. His worst finish this season was 15th last week, which was only the 5th time he finished outside of the top 10. He’ll be running up front again in this race.

Tony Stewart
Tony had a bad stretch this season starting at Darlington where he finished 18th or worse in four straight races. He turned that around at Michigan with a 5th place finish, and should get another top five finish this weekend. In nine career races he has two wins, three top 5s, and five top 10s with an average finish of 10th place.

Two others that should do well:
Greg Biffle
Greg only has five races here under his belt with two top 5s which were in the last two here. He’s starting a good trend, and it should continue this weekend.

Kurt Busch
Kurt has finished 3rd and 5th in two of the last three here. He’s had a rough season, but he’s a pretty good driver on road courses and should be able to get a top 10 finish.

Dark horse
Elliot Sadler
Elliot has done very well in Sonoma. He has a 10th, 6th and 8th in three of the last four. In nine career races he has four top 10s. He may not get a top 5 finish, but should be around the top 10 most of the day.

Race 14 - Pocono 500 Review and Fantasy Recap

The race in Pocono proved to be more exciting than I anticipated, but that wasn't a hard thing to do. There was actually some good racing from 5th on back, firey wrecks, and other action. Let's hope this can continue into Michigan next week.

How'd my picks do this week? Well, I advised you on the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th, and 14th place finishers. On the bad side I also advised you to pick the 35th and 43rd place finishers.

Four with a real shot to win
Kyle Busch - Wrecked early and finished dead last, 43rd
Kurt Busch - Solid 8th place finish
Denny Hamlin - Overcame some issues to finish 3rd.
Tony Stewart - 35th place finish

Two others that should do well
Jimmie Johnson - Pretty good run with a 6th place finish
Jeff Gordon - Not a very good run for Jeff, with a 14th place finish

Darkhorse
Brian Vickers - Great run for Brian, finishing 2nd

Race 14 – Pocono 500 Preview

The boys are on the triangle track in Pocono this weekend. This will be the first of six races that TNT will broadcast. Kyle Petty will be joining the announce crew.

Will this race be more exciting than last week’s at Dover? Probably not. Historically Pocono doesn’t have much side-by-side racing, and I expect it to be extra hard to pass with the new car. Don’t expect much passing for the lead on the track, as the pit crews will probably play a big part in determining the winner.

One interesting stat from NASCAR.com is that “Four of the past five races at triangular-shaped Pocono have been won from the starting row -- twice from the pole by Denny Hamlin and twice on the outside by Kurt Busch.

Now, on with my picks.

Four with a real shot to win
Kyle Busch
Kyle is going to race the Truck, Nationwide, and Cup series this weekend, which mean he’ll be doing a lot of flying. The truck race, Friday night, is in Texas; the Nationwide series, Saturday night, is in Nashville; and the Sprint Cup race is Sunday afternoon in Pocono. Will he be able to hold up to all the racing and flying form city to city? We’ll find out, but one good thing about it is that he’ll probably get out of sponsor commitments, fan meet and greets, etc. that the drivers normally have to do. This will allow him to focus on driving and nothing else.

Kyle really hasn’t done much at Pocono in his career with only two top 10s in six career races, but with how he’s running this year, how can you not pick him? The question is, will all of the travel and racing in the other series take his attention away from Sunday’s race? Qualifying 10th is a nice way to start things out. The kid’s on a roll, and I say take him again this week.

Kurt Busch
Kurt has had a horrible season so far, but he’s done well at Pocono, and looks to contend for the win on Sunday. In fourteen races at Pocono he has two wins and seven top 5s, five of which came in his last seven races. He has a 1st and two seconds in three of the last four here, with a 14.6 place average finish. 11th place qualifying position should help Kurt stay in the lead pack early.

Denny Hamlin
With four races at Pocono he has two wins, 3rd, and 6th place finishes which is an average finish of 2.8. Denny is my pick to win the race. At one point this season Denny had four consecutive top 5s, but has finished 24th and 43rd in his last two races. Denny is too good of a driver to have that trend continue. Add that to his great record at Pocono and that makes him my pick to win the race.

Tony Stewart
Tony hasn’t had a great season, but he still finds himself in 9th place in the points which isn’t too bad. He has a good history at Pocono finishing 6th, 5th, 7th, and 3rd in the last four here. In eighteen career races he as one win, five top 5s, and thirteen top 10s. In the last three races of this season Tony finished 21st, 18th and 41st. He’s past due for a good run.

Two others that should do well
Jimmie Johnson
In twelve career races at Pocono Jimmie has seven top 10s, four top 5s, and two wins. The 10.7 place average finish is pretty impress also. Jimmie has three top 10s in three of his last four races at Pocono.

In the last five races of this season Jimmie finished 13th, 30th, 13th, 39th, and 7th. I have faith that Jimmie will buck the trend of good finishes every other race and be able to string two together. I don’t know if Jimmie will contend for the win, but he should be in the top 10. Qualifying 2nd is a good way to start a top 10 run.

Jeff Gordon
Remember after race 9 when Jeff was 14th in points and everyone wrote him off thinking he wasn’t a serious contender for the title? Well, he’s cranked out four consecutive top 10s which includes three consecutive top 5s moving up to 6th in points, and is back in the mix. Jeff finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd in his last three races at Pocono. In 30 career races here he has four wins, fifteen top 5s, and twenty one top 10s with an average finish of 10.2. Jeff should keep rolling and get another top 5 or 10 finish. A poor qualifying effort doesn't help Jeff out any, but he should be able to slowly pick his way through the field and get close to the top 10 in the first 30 or so laps.

Darkhorse
Brian Vickers
Vickers finds himself 16th in points with only two top 10 finishes and five top 15s. It’s not a very good season so far, but he has been impressive in races, leading a lot of laps only to have some bad luck take him out. Pocono can be different for him, as he does have two 4th place finishes in his last four here (qualified 4th for both). Look for him to be in the top 10 on Sunday, as he was able to qualify in the 15th position.

Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Review and Fantasy Recap

It took a while for the racing to get good, but once it did, there was quite a bit of excitement. There was a lot of passing, and side-by-side action in the last 40+ laps and of course some pretty impressive wrecks.

Kyle Busch was able to stay in front of the crashes and stay in front of Juan Pablo Montoya to get the victory. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was strong all race, but couldn’t pull off the win after getting involved in a wreck, and finished in a respectable 10th place.

The surprise finishes of the race had to be Juan Montoya taking 2nd place, David Ragan in 4th, and Brian Vickers in 5th. Good jobs by these guys, and let’s see if they can build on this for future races.

The four drivers with a real shot to win.
The four I said had a real shot to win did pretty good, according to the unofficial results. We’ll see if this changes at all after NASCAR posts the official results tomorrow.
Jimmy Johnson finished 11th.
Kurt Busch was in a wreck and ended up finishing 39th after fighting to get back on the lead lap.
Jeff Gordon finished 12th.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished 10th.

The two others that I said should do well,
Ryan Newman finished 8th after running up front most of the day.
Brian Vickers had a great run and finished 5th.


Fantasy Update
phin got the high point total of the week with 594, and move up 5 spots, all the way up to 39th.

Browngw got the low point total of the week with 275, forgetting to take Mark Martin off his team, and dropped 18 spots from 5th to 23rd….ouch!

The biggest position gainer was hollydiaz, moving up 7 spots to 20th.

Eliminator
Redvette won the eliminator! His driver, Tony Stewart, didn’t finish in the top 10, but he finished ahead of shocker, who forgot to pick their driver.

The next Eliminator game will start with the Coca-Cola 600 on May 25, and once again will be free.

Race 9 – Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Preview

Talladega is the biggest track on the circuit at 2.66 miles. It's a wide track that allows for some good side by side racing. Let's hope the boys have the new car figured out, and can make the racing good. I don't want to fall asleep during the race this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Will this be the race that Dale Earnhardt Jr. breaks his winless streak? Early in his career he dominated at Talladega. From 2001 – 2004 he had 5 wins, 2 second place finishes, and 1 eighth place finish. Since then he’s not been nearly as good, finishing 15th or worse (40th twice) from 2005 through the spring of 2007. In the fall race here last year, he finished in the top 10 taking home 7th.

He’s driving a lot better this year with Hendrick, and looks like a true contender for the title. We’ll see if he can get back to his old self and win the race.

Jimmy Johnson
He’s baaaack. He’s gotten himself back up to 4th in the standings with three consecutive top 5 finishes. Look for Jimmy to keep the domination going. He finished 2nd in the last two Talladega races and won the spring race in 2006, so he’ll be running with the lead dogs all race long.

Carl Edwards
If it weren’t for the 100 point deduction he’d be 2nd in the standings…although, after he got caught cheating he did poorly in Atlanta, but has bounced back since then. He’s finished in the top 10 in the last 3 races picking up a win in Texas. Talladega isn’t like the 1.5 mile ovals that Carl has been dominating at, so I don’t know if he’ll be a real threat to win the race. In 7 career races at Talladega, he only has three top 10’s and his best finish is 5th.

Drivers with a chance to win
· Jimmy Johnson – He is back, and in a big way. Look for Jimmy to show that he’s the man to beat. He has a 2nd, 2nd, and 1st in 3 of last 4 races here.
· Kurt Busch – Kurt has been pretty low key this year, all the way down in 16th place in the standings. I think he’ll be able to make some noise in Talladega. This track has been pretty good to him giving him a 7th, 3rd, 3rd, and 7th in last 4 races here.
· Jeff Gordon – Hey, he’s Jeff Gordon. He won both races here last year, has 6 career wins at the track, and 13 top 5s.
· Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 5 career wins at the track, racing for Hendrick now, and hasn’t won a race in 2 years. Look for him to end that this weekend.

Two others who could do well
· Ryan Newman – Talladega is fast and Newman loves to go fast. He’s finished 5th and 9th in last two here and 5 career top 10s. If he can avoid a wreck, then he should be in the front pack with a couple laps to go.
· Brian Vickers – Brian did well at Daytona, the only restrictor plate race so far this season, finishing 12th, and I look for him to challenge to get into the top 10 this week. He’s won and finished 3rd in 2 of the last four races here. In his career he’s been hit or miss, finishing 27th or worse 4 times, and top 10 the other 3 times. I say it’s time for another top 10 for Brian.

Does NASCAR Really Want the Drivers to Display Their Personalities?

On Monday, January 21st NASCAR CEO Brian France gave a “State of the sport” speech. In it he didn’t announce any radical changes. Instead the theme was that the sport wants to “embrace the past, and the rich heritage”. As part of this, NASCAR has said that they want to see the drivers’ personalities show more on and off the track. This would definitely be a good thing, and probably help bring some viewers back to NASCAR, but will NASCAR actually let the drivers be themselves?

Ever since Dale Earnhardt died NASCAR has been cracking down on “rough” or “aggressive” driving, fining drivers and putting them on probation (no word yet if NASCAR has a double-secret probation). The two drivers that have probably been most affected by this are Kurt Busch and Tony Stewart. They’re the ones most likely to bump other drivers, nudge them out of the way and make a pass. Of course this was Earnhart’s signature move, but now that he’s gone, if anyone else does it they’re called into the hauler and given a lecture by the powers that be. Whatever happened to the term “rubbin’s racin’”? It seems that NASCAR has taken out one of the elements that brought fans; the ability for cars to bump and bang into each other to make a pass and be physical. Now they run the series so tight they act like the car will fall apart if touched.

NASCAR says that they’re going to let the personalities come out in the drivers and back off on the fines and let them drive more. Well, I guess time will tell, but during practice yesterday, we already had an altercation from, you guessed it, Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch. (See video at: http://sports.espn.go.com/rpm/news/story?seriesId=2&id=3238271 ) No fines have been handed out yet, but with the way Kurt Busch acted on pit road, he should be fined for putting a pit crew member in danger. After the incident the drivers were told to keep their distance from each other in the Bud Shootout tonight. Hopefully that’s just the public statement that NASCAR puts out, and we’re able to see the two go side-by-side and battle it out. If you want to see personality, there’s nothing better than two drivers going door to door trying to send a message to each other. I guess we’ll find out tonight.

Obviously some drivers don’t truly believe that NASCAR wants their personalities to show. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is one of them. "I think honestly they're playing to you guys, not talking to the drivers," he said to reporters. "Basically, they're trying to appear to be looser. "Their [intentions] have not been relayed to the driver as to what's been changed. Just a press release went out to the press, 'Hey, we're going to do this. How about that? You guys like that, right?' So what have they told us? I don't know what that means."

Back in November I wrote an entry about how the ratings of NASCAR are dipping, and what can be done to get viewers back. (http://blog.chadsfantasynascar.com/2007/11/how-to-bring-back-nascar-viewers.html) That had to deal with season and race length, but obviously another big factor in getting fans back is personalities in the sport, and better racing action. Will NASCAR let the drivers be themselves, and will they let more physical racing take place on the track? Let me know your thoughts.