Race 18 - Coke 400 Review

Wow! What a race! Finally, there's action during the race, lots of passing, and we have an exciting finish. I have to say, I was pretty upset when Gordon wrecked, but it was exciting and some great entertainment. I've complained about the new car a lot this year, but tonight it showed that it allows the driver to save the car and avoid spinning out....unless of course it gets as crazy as it did tonight.

I was on vacation so I didn't get a chance to post my picks for the week, but with that crazy finish, it'd be hard to have good predictions.

More to come later this week...

Race 17 – Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire Preview

New Hampshire Motor Speedway is just over a mile long and is pretty flat. There’s only 12 degrees of banking in the turns and 2 degrees on the straight-aways. The “flat tracks” are tougher to pass on and is harder for the drivers to go fast and keep control. Hopefully we’ll see a good race, but I have a feeling that the late passing could be during the pit stops.

Four with a real shot to win
Jeff Gordon
I know, I know…I almost always pick him even though he’s having a bad year. Well, how great do you have to be for 6th place in points to be a bad year? In his last three races here Jeff has three top 5s. Look for him to keep up the trend. In is career he has 3 wins, 12 top 5s, and 15 top 10s in 26 races with an average finish of 11.6. I smell win number one of 2008.

Denny Hamlin
Denny is just a really, really good driver. In only four races here he has a win, two top 5s, and three top 10s with an average finish of 6.5. It’d be tough not to have him on your team.

Kevin Harvick
Kevin is good on the flat tracks and has a pretty good record here. In his last four races at New Hampshire he has a win and three top 10s. For his career he’s racked up eight top 10s in 14 races. He should be in the top 5 or 10 all race long.

Jimmie Johnson
One top 5 and three top 10s in 3 of the last 4 here. Two career wins, and an average finish of 10.7 at the track make Jimmie hard to ignore. He should be contending for the win on Sunday.

Two others that should do well
Kyle Busch
Kyle has two top 5s including a win in his last four at this track. He’s doing better than anyone could have expected this season, and there’s no reason that success couldn’t continue.

Jeff Burton
Jeff is the poor guy that gets no respect because Kyle is doing so well. Jeff is more consistent and is always around the top 10. He also has four career wins in New Hampshire, seven top 5s and 12 top 10s in 26 career races. Picking him is almost a sure top 10.

Dark Horse
J.J. Yeley
This season has been very rough for Yeley as he’s down in 36th place in points, but I think he can do well this weekend. In three of his last four races here he has a 8th, 10th, and 12th place finish. So far this season 25th has been his best finish (twice), which is pretty bad. Look for him to turn things around and get his first top 10 finish of the season.

Race 16 – Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Infineon Raceway Preview

Sonoma. The first of two road courses in the NASCAR season. The good thing about this race is that you shouldn’t hear people complaining about the new car since it really shouldn’t have an affect on this race. It’s always tough to pass on this track, but there are a few places on the course that they can, and we should see some good action.

A road course also means there’ll be drivers who aren’t regulars to NASCAR in the race, trying to show their skills. (Think Boris Said, Ron Fellows, and Brian Simo to name a few.)

Four drivers with a real shot to win
Jeff Gordon
15 races here, five wins, nine top 5s, 11 top 10s, and an average finish of 9.7. He’s won two and finished 7th in three of the last four here. I know Jeff hasn’t looked real good lately, but he is an awesome road course driver. He’s probably the only NASCAR regular that could go to F1 and win. He’ll win on Sunday.

Boris Said
Boris isn’t an every week driver, but road courses are his specialty, and teams hire him just for the two road courses. He’s finished 6th, and has two 9ths in the last four here. He averages a 9.7 place finish in the races that he completes all the laps….Which means he has to avoid the wrecks and he’s virtually guaranteed a top 10 finish, and should be contending for the win.

Jeff Burton
Jeff’s career numbers aren’t great at Infineon Raceway, averaging a 19.4 place finish, but he has three top 10 finishes in the last four here. His worst finish this season was 15th last week, which was only the 5th time he finished outside of the top 10. He’ll be running up front again in this race.

Tony Stewart
Tony had a bad stretch this season starting at Darlington where he finished 18th or worse in four straight races. He turned that around at Michigan with a 5th place finish, and should get another top five finish this weekend. In nine career races he has two wins, three top 5s, and five top 10s with an average finish of 10th place.

Two others that should do well:
Greg Biffle
Greg only has five races here under his belt with two top 5s which were in the last two here. He’s starting a good trend, and it should continue this weekend.

Kurt Busch
Kurt has finished 3rd and 5th in two of the last three here. He’s had a rough season, but he’s a pretty good driver on road courses and should be able to get a top 10 finish.

Dark horse
Elliot Sadler
Elliot has done very well in Sonoma. He has a 10th, 6th and 8th in three of the last four. In nine career races he has four top 10s. He may not get a top 5 finish, but should be around the top 10 most of the day.

Race 14 - Pocono 500 Review and Fantasy Recap

The race in Pocono proved to be more exciting than I anticipated, but that wasn't a hard thing to do. There was actually some good racing from 5th on back, firey wrecks, and other action. Let's hope this can continue into Michigan next week.

How'd my picks do this week? Well, I advised you on the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 8th, and 14th place finishers. On the bad side I also advised you to pick the 35th and 43rd place finishers.

Four with a real shot to win
Kyle Busch - Wrecked early and finished dead last, 43rd
Kurt Busch - Solid 8th place finish
Denny Hamlin - Overcame some issues to finish 3rd.
Tony Stewart - 35th place finish

Two others that should do well
Jimmie Johnson - Pretty good run with a 6th place finish
Jeff Gordon - Not a very good run for Jeff, with a 14th place finish

Darkhorse
Brian Vickers - Great run for Brian, finishing 2nd

Race 14 – Pocono 500 Preview

The boys are on the triangle track in Pocono this weekend. This will be the first of six races that TNT will broadcast. Kyle Petty will be joining the announce crew.

Will this race be more exciting than last week’s at Dover? Probably not. Historically Pocono doesn’t have much side-by-side racing, and I expect it to be extra hard to pass with the new car. Don’t expect much passing for the lead on the track, as the pit crews will probably play a big part in determining the winner.

One interesting stat from NASCAR.com is that “Four of the past five races at triangular-shaped Pocono have been won from the starting row -- twice from the pole by Denny Hamlin and twice on the outside by Kurt Busch.

Now, on with my picks.

Four with a real shot to win
Kyle Busch
Kyle is going to race the Truck, Nationwide, and Cup series this weekend, which mean he’ll be doing a lot of flying. The truck race, Friday night, is in Texas; the Nationwide series, Saturday night, is in Nashville; and the Sprint Cup race is Sunday afternoon in Pocono. Will he be able to hold up to all the racing and flying form city to city? We’ll find out, but one good thing about it is that he’ll probably get out of sponsor commitments, fan meet and greets, etc. that the drivers normally have to do. This will allow him to focus on driving and nothing else.

Kyle really hasn’t done much at Pocono in his career with only two top 10s in six career races, but with how he’s running this year, how can you not pick him? The question is, will all of the travel and racing in the other series take his attention away from Sunday’s race? Qualifying 10th is a nice way to start things out. The kid’s on a roll, and I say take him again this week.

Kurt Busch
Kurt has had a horrible season so far, but he’s done well at Pocono, and looks to contend for the win on Sunday. In fourteen races at Pocono he has two wins and seven top 5s, five of which came in his last seven races. He has a 1st and two seconds in three of the last four here, with a 14.6 place average finish. 11th place qualifying position should help Kurt stay in the lead pack early.

Denny Hamlin
With four races at Pocono he has two wins, 3rd, and 6th place finishes which is an average finish of 2.8. Denny is my pick to win the race. At one point this season Denny had four consecutive top 5s, but has finished 24th and 43rd in his last two races. Denny is too good of a driver to have that trend continue. Add that to his great record at Pocono and that makes him my pick to win the race.

Tony Stewart
Tony hasn’t had a great season, but he still finds himself in 9th place in the points which isn’t too bad. He has a good history at Pocono finishing 6th, 5th, 7th, and 3rd in the last four here. In eighteen career races he as one win, five top 5s, and thirteen top 10s. In the last three races of this season Tony finished 21st, 18th and 41st. He’s past due for a good run.

Two others that should do well
Jimmie Johnson
In twelve career races at Pocono Jimmie has seven top 10s, four top 5s, and two wins. The 10.7 place average finish is pretty impress also. Jimmie has three top 10s in three of his last four races at Pocono.

In the last five races of this season Jimmie finished 13th, 30th, 13th, 39th, and 7th. I have faith that Jimmie will buck the trend of good finishes every other race and be able to string two together. I don’t know if Jimmie will contend for the win, but he should be in the top 10. Qualifying 2nd is a good way to start a top 10 run.

Jeff Gordon
Remember after race 9 when Jeff was 14th in points and everyone wrote him off thinking he wasn’t a serious contender for the title? Well, he’s cranked out four consecutive top 10s which includes three consecutive top 5s moving up to 6th in points, and is back in the mix. Jeff finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd in his last three races at Pocono. In 30 career races here he has four wins, fifteen top 5s, and twenty one top 10s with an average finish of 10.2. Jeff should keep rolling and get another top 5 or 10 finish. A poor qualifying effort doesn't help Jeff out any, but he should be able to slowly pick his way through the field and get close to the top 10 in the first 30 or so laps.

Darkhorse
Brian Vickers
Vickers finds himself 16th in points with only two top 10 finishes and five top 15s. It’s not a very good season so far, but he has been impressive in races, leading a lot of laps only to have some bad luck take him out. Pocono can be different for him, as he does have two 4th place finishes in his last four here (qualified 4th for both). Look for him to be in the top 10 on Sunday, as he was able to qualify in the 15th position.

Does Kyle Busch stack up against recent NASCAR greats?

I know I wrote up a full entry on Kyle just a few weeks ago saying that no matter if you love or hate him, he’s good. I still stand by that because he is good, and he’s the best driver in NASCAR right now. I promise you that this will be the last blog entry that I dedicate to Kyle Busch. I’ll mention him for race previews if I think he can win, but outside of that, I’ll be done talking about him this season unless he’s in first place with one race to go in the season, and poised to win the championship.

So what prompted me to post this? Well, during one of the most boring races I’ve ever watched last Sunday at Dover, Darrell Waltrip made the comment that he’s never seen anyone on a run like Kyle Busch is right now. Following that, the announcers gushed over him some more and couldn’t stop talking about how great he is, like no one else has ever done this well so early in their career. It made me ask the question, “Did they forget about this guy named Jeff Gordon?”, who twice has won ten races in a season (1996 & 1997), and thirteen races in one season (1998; 4 in a row at one point).

I know all of this hype isn’t Kyle’s doing. He’s been pretty modest throughout all of the success he’s had this season, so don’t think I’m bashing Kyle himself, I’m just pointing out the fact that the media is conveniently forgetting about some other drivers that have done better than him this early in their career.

Jeff has gone on to be one of the greatest drivers in the history of NASCAR with four championships, in which the first one was in his 3rd full season in the sport. Kyle sure didn’t do that. Jeff would have six championships if NASCAR didn’t change to the “Chase” format, but since this is real life, we can’t play the what-if game, so Jeff only has four championships.

Another driver the announcers seem to forget about having hot streaks when he was new to NASCAR is Jimmie Johnson. He finished 5th in points his rookie year, without the chase! How impressive is that? He won three races his rookie year in 2002 as well. The next two years he finished 2nd in points, and then 5th in points in his fourth year of racing. Kyle is positioning himself to win a championship this season, but he finished 20th in points his rookie year, and last season, his third full season, he finished 5th in the standings, his best showing so far.

You can look at the table I have below comparing Kyle’s first four full-time seasons against Jeff and Jimmie. Yes, I know, 2008 is his fourth season, and not complete yet, but to compare to Jeff, they have about the same number of races under their belt. As you can see, Kyle is worse than Jeff and Jimmie in the following categories:
Average starting position, Average finish position, Wins, Top 5’s, Top 10’s, Average points position at the end of the season, and Kyle averaged more finishes of 30th or worse.

One thing Kyle has on his side is age. He started his career two years younger than Jeff, and seven years younger than Jimmie. With that fact he has the opportunity to race more seasons than Jeff and Jimmie and potentially win more races and championships. Will he actually be able to do it? It won’t be easy, but I’ll say this, if he doesn’t win the championship this season, then I don’t know when he would. He has everything rolling and going his way. He has four wins already, and only one finish of 30th or worse, which means he’s avoiding (and not creating) wrecks this season.

Something unique about Kyle’s run is that he’s dominating on all three of NASCAR’s major National circuits: Craftsman Truck, Nationwide Series, and Sprint Cup. Neither Jimmie nor Jeff did that, but I’d argue that they were busy focusing on winning the championship that people care about, and their records show it. No doubt Kyle’s run is impressive, I’m not trying to take that away from him, but let’s focus on one championship in the circuit that matters, and not beat up on sub-par competition in the trucks and Nationwide series.

Like I said to close my previous blog; when Kyle starts winning championships we’ll be able to say he's one of the greats in NASCAR. Until then his impressive runs of top 5’s and races won are good, but it really just means that he had some good races, and didn’t win the big prize.

Kyle Busch – Love him or hate him, the kid is good

Fans love to boo a winner
Kyle Busch has been one of the most talked about drivers so far this season. He’s one of the best drivers, can dominate and win any race on any track, and of course the fans love to boo him and paint him as the villain. NASCAR fans, like fans of many sports, boo anyone who wins and dominates too much. Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, and Jeff Gordon all got booed by the fans when they were in their prime, winning 10 or more races a season. Kyle hasn’t won that many races in a season yet, but he does have 3 wins already in 2008. Kyle is being a good sport about the fans booing him though. At Darlington, as the fans booed on his parade lap before the race, he took off his sunglasses and acted like he was wiping away a tear. Good stuff.

Fans also love to boo a jerk
Along with his success on the track Kyle has had a few “bump and runs” as well. He has a very aggressive driving style, not letting up on any lap. Along the way he’s wrecked his share of drivers, including Dale Earnhardt Jr. at Richmond a couple weeks ago. This is a prime example of why many fans have come to despise and villainize Kyle. When asked about his approach to the races Kyle says, “I’m just out there to do one thing…win races.” He says that the fans’ reaction doesn’t matter to him. As Ray Evernham said, “He’s not really a villain, but the competition.”

Throwing beer cans at him isn’t the answer
Booing a driver you don’t like is fine. Yell at him; flip him the bird, whatever you want, but the fans that throw their beer cans shouldn’t be allowed back at the track. Security should try to catch as many of them as possible and ban them for life. After Kyle won the race in Richmond (when he wrecked Jr.) fans threw cans on the track at him, similar to what they did to Jeff Gordon after he passed Dale Earnhardt in career victories. What a stupid thing for the fans to do, for more than one reason. #1 being safety. They don’t all have strong enough arms to get their cans of beer on the track, and are hitting the fans in the front few rows. A 12oz can of beer cracking you in the skull can’t feel good. #2 is that throwing cans give the tracks a reason to stop allowing fans to carry in their own beverages. If people are going to act like idiots and throw their stuff around, there’s no reason to allow them to bring it in. This is a huge selling point for the sport, and I don’t think NASCAR wants to take that privilege away, but if people are going to continue to act like this they may not have a choice.

Will he become one of the all-time greats?
Kyle has been receiving some comparisons to the all-time great drivers in NASCAR. He’s heard some Earnhardt comparisons because of his aggressive style and dominating races. He said that it’s “Awesome to have that” regarding the comparisons. He says it more about being himself, and not worrying what others are saying.

Kyle is definitely one of the top drivers in the sport right now'. He has more raw talent than most of the drivers combined, and he has access to great equipment and minds at Joe Gibbs Racing. With all of this, he could be on his way to all-time greatness, but I don’t think we can really begin this discussion until he has a couple championships under his belt. The greatest, “King” Richard Petty has 7 championships, Dale Earnhardt also had 7, while Jeff Gordon has 4. All others considered among the best have 3 (Darrell Waltrip, Cale Yarbourgh, David Pearson, and Lee Petty). No doubt, it's tougher to win a championship now than when most of these drivers were active, but if he wants to be mentioned among the best, that's what it'll take.

Kyle is off to a great start this season, and could very well win his first of many championships. If he does, then let the hype machine and larger endorsement deals begin. On top of all this, remember that the kid just turned 23 on May 2nd. He has what looks to be a long and promising career ahead of him. Will he become one of the all-time greats? Let’s see if he can win a championship first.

Race 11 – Darlington Recap and Fantasy Update

Well, the track was much faster with the new surface, and there were quite a few drivers that got their “Darlington stripe”. Kyle Busch hit the wall a couple times late in the race while leading, but it didn’t stop him from running away with the win.

The racing action wasn’t that great last night, but it wasn’t really expected to be with the higher speeds. Once a driver got the lead it was pretty tough to pass them. Dale Earnhardt Jr. made mention of it in the post race interview, saying it was almost impossible to pass. This should change as the new surface gets broken in and speeds slow down a bit.

So, how’d my recommendations do?
Four drivers with a real shot to win
· Jeff Gordon – Strong 3rd place finish, but didn’t have close to the car needed to win….but then again, no one had a car to compete with Kyle Busch.
· Jimmie Johnson – Had a pretty uneventful night and finished 13th.
· Ryan Newman – Disappointing night for Ryan. Got a couple laps down early, but made it up to about 24th, then had more issues and finished 37th.
· Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Strong all night, and finished 4th.

Two others that should do well
· Greg Biffle – Greg was running strong, but mechanical failures had him finish dead last.
· Denny Hamlin – Strong 7th place finish.Dark Horse· Martin Truex Jr. – Martin was in the top 10 most of the night, and even cracked the top 5, but after a late race incident with Denny Hamlin he wasn’t able to hold the good position and fell to a 14th place finish.

Fantasy Update
We have a new leader! Highlife passed buchsmoto and now leads by only 16 points. After that it’s 220 points to 3rd place jusmony.

Browere made a big move, up 8 spots, to get into the top 10, and mouse moved up 3 spots to 13th, only 25 points out of the last chase spot.

Other movers:
· Hollydiaz got the high point total of the week, and moved up the most spots, 14, to 20th place.
· Smoke20 moved 8 spots in the wrong direction, dropping to 25th place.
· Amped Up and SkidRow lost 9 and 10 spots with their bad weeks.

Misc Notes:
11 races down 15 to go until the chase begins.
· Right now there’s only 112 point difference between 12th and 21st place.
· From 22nd place to 36th is only a 107 point difference

It’s still wide open and anyone can make the chase, so don’t give up now. There’s no points race next week, as it’s the All-Star race in Charlotte, so enjoy the week off, and be ready to pick your drivers for the Coca-Cola 600 on the 25th. Don't forget that the next Eliminator begins with the Coca-Cola 600!!

Good Luck!!

Race 11 – Dodge Challenger 500 at Darlington Preview

Another Saturday night race, this time at Darlington Raceway. The recently repaved 1.366 mile oval should be faster than normal. Look for speeds to be up, and possibly the number of drivers sliding into the wall early.

Back in early March Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, and Greg Biffle did some tire testing at Darlington for Goodyear. Could this give them a bit of an edge since they have a few more laps on the new surface than other driver?


Kyle Busch
With his strong run last week, Kyle Busch was able to pass Jeff Burton in the standings to regain the top spot he once held after the 5th race of the season. He’s only raced at Darlington three times, with just one top 10 finish, so it doesn’t look too good for him Saturday night. However, Kyle has four straight top 10 finishes, three of them in the top 3, so momentum is on his side. The new surface will also be fast and slick, which are conditions Kyle loves. Will the momentum and new surface carry him to a top 10 finish or better on Saturday?

Jimmie Johnson
After climbing up to 4th in points a couple weeks ago, Jimmie has had some mediocre runs at best, and has slipped a few spots to 7th. I expect Jimmie will be back to his dominating self this week. He has eight career top 10s in only nine races. He should be running up front all night.

Jeff Gordon
Jeff has looked good in some races and didn’t get the results due to wrecks, but had the opposite happen last week when he wasn’t running very good, but found himself in 9th place when the race ended. Expect all that to be different this week. Jeff has absolutely dominated at Darlington in his career. He has seven career wins, fifteen top 5s, and eighteen top 10s in only 27 races. Look for Jeff to be challenging for the lead the entire race.

Ryan Newman
This team has been up and down all season, and can’t seem to keep a good streak going. They’ve finished 1st at Daytona and 43rd in Phoenix. They’re sitting 11th in points right now, and must string together 5 or 6 consecutive top 10s to solidify themselves in the chase. They currently have two top 10s in a row, and should have a third one after this race. Ryan has finished in the top 10 here in the last 3 races, and has 6 career top 10s in 9 career races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Jr. continues to put a solid season together. Every time I think he’ll have an off week, he proves me wrong and runs well. Last season it seemed like he mailed in a couple races, but this year he seemed focused every race, for the entire race. In an interview on April 3rd Jr. said, “It’s good to have other people you’re motivated to please.” Guess he was sick of Theresa. Look for him to stay motivated and please Hendrick Racing again this week.

Four drivers with a real shot to win
· Jeff Gordon – 1st, 2nd, 2nd in last 3 – 7 career wins, 18 career top 10s, 15 top 5s, in 27 races. How can you go against that success?
· Jimmie Johnson – 3rd, 4th, 7th in last 3 – 8 career top 10s in 9 races with 2 wins, 5 top 5s. He’ll make up for the 30th place finish last week.
· Ryan Newman – 4th, 6th, 5th in last 3 – 6 career top 10s, 5 top 5s, in 9 career races. Flyin’ Ryan likes to go fast, and the new surface at Darlington will be fast.
· Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 8th, 5th, 8th – 4 consecutive top 10 finishes, 6 career top 10 in 13 races. He’s gonna win soon enough…

Two others that should do well
· Greg Biffle – 2 Wins in the last 3 here. Tough to go against wins, but we’ll see if he can keep it up while contract talks are ongoing.
· Denny Hamlin – 2nd, 10th in only 2 races here. He injured his hip playing basketball this week, but he won’t feel that once the adrenaline kicks in for the race.

Dark Horse
· Martin Truex Jr. – 11th and 14th place finish in his only two races here and coming off a season best 5th place finish at Richmond, Martin should have confidence on his side for this race.

Crown Royal 400 at Richmond Review and Fantasy Recap

This looked like a pretty boring race for 350 laps as Denny Hamlin absolutely dominated, leading close to every lap. It seemed that the only suspense would be, who is going to finish 2nd, until his right front tire started to go down. If it weren’t for the bad luck Denny would have run away with the win.

The last 40 or so laps of the race were worth the wait. There was lots of aggressive, side-by-side, racing and lots of drivers trying to fit into spots that they couldn’t, causing some impressive wrecks.

After Denny went out, and Dale Jr. and Kyle Busch’s wreck Clint Bowyer seized the opportunity to take home his second career Sprint Cup victory. Kyle Busch was able to hold of Mark Martin at the end for 2nd place.

The surprise finish of the race had to be Reed Sorenson finishing 10th, a solid run for that group, and his best finish since coming home 5th at Daytona.

How'd my picks do?
4 With a real shot to win.
Kyle Busch – After he and Jr. got together, he was able to hold off Mark Martin for 2nd.
Jimmie Johnson – Jimmie had a strong run going before he got caught up in a wreck and finished 30th.
Denny Hamlin – Talk about domination. If anyone deserved to win, he did, but an untimely flat tire in the last 40 laps of the race cost him the victory, and he ended up with a 25th place finish.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick was in the top 10 all night, and finished 6th to cap off a solid run.

2 others that could do well
Tony Stewart – Solid run with a 4th place finish.
Jeff Gordon – Solid run with a 9th place finish

Sleeper
David Ragan – David was able to keep up with the leaders most of the night, and finished a respectable 17th, but getting caught up in an early wreck cost him a chance to finish in the top 10.

On the fantasy side of things buckeye65 & highlife got the high point total with 601. Buchsmoto now only holds a 22 point lead over highlife.

Big movers of the week:
Nascar_nut – Up 9 spots to 29th. Can they make it all the way into the chase?
Browngw – Up 8 spots to 12th, back in the chase, after forgetting to change his drivers last week.
Hollydiaz – Moving the wrong direction, down 10 spots to 32nd. Looks like holly forgot to dump Ken Schrader.

Race 10 - Crown Royal 400 at Richmond Preview

Well, this weekend the boys are running under the lights on a Saturday night in Richmond, Virginia. This is the short track that thinks it’s a super speedway. The ¾ mile track should give us a little bit of everything; high speeds, bumping, and good racing.

Kyle Busch
With the win last week Kyle Busch trimmed Jeff Burton’s points lead 58 points, down to just 22. Kyle has done really well at Richmond in his career. In six races he’s only finished out of the top 5 once (20th last year). Even though his two worse finishes of the season came on the short tracks at Bristol (17th) and Martinsville (38th), don’t look for him to finish that bad in Richmond. The D shaped track should fit Kyle’s aggressive style, so he should continue to do well.

Denny Hamlin
The third year driver has been having a solid, but fairly quiet year so far. He’s fourth in points with six top 10s, four top 5s and one Win. In four career races at Richmond he’s finished in the top 10 three times. His worst qualifying position has been 7th, so look for him to do well and run up front most of the night.

Kevin Harvick
Harvick’s career started out kind of rough at Richmond. In his first eight races (2001 – 2004) he only finished in the top 10 twice. Since then he has six consecutive top 10 finished with three top 5s. It’ll be hard to bet against those numbers.

Jeff Burton
Not much gets said about the Sprint Cup points leader and his chances to win races. It seems that Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, or the Hendrick drivers take a lot of the spotlight. Jeff has had a solid season so far with one Win and his worst finish being 13th in Daytona. Unfortunately I don’t think that success will translate to Richmond. Since 2004 (a span of 8 races) Jeff has only finished in the top 10 once. In the eight races before that (2000 – 2003) he had finished in the top 10 six times. That’s quite a drop off in performance. He may do okay and finish in the top 15, but I don’t see him challenging for a victory.

Tony Stewart
Smoke needs to start heating up. After the crash in Talladega and a 38th place finish Stewart dropped to 9th in the standings. Historically he’s done well at Richmond, and should have a shot at success on Saturday night. He has twelve career top 10s and three Wins at the track in 18 races. Look for him to be aggressive and push to the front.

4 with a real shot to win
· Kyle Busch – He’s been hot all season, and he does well in Richmond.
· Jimmy Johnson – Won last two, and is looking more like the Jimmy that dominated last year
· Denny Hamlin – He has a 6th, 3rd, 2nd in 3 of the last 4 in Richmond.
· Kevin Harvick – Six consecutive top 10s at a track is hard to ignore.

2 others that could do well
· Tony Stewart – 2nd, 8th, 6th in 3 of last 4, and ready to make up points after last week’s wrecks
· Jeff Gordon – Finished 4th in the last two races here, looking to get back in the top 12

Sleeper
· David Ragan – He’s only had two career races at Richmond, but finished 3rd in last fall’s race. He may be able to get another top 5 or 10 finish this weekend if he can avoid wrecks.

Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Review and Fantasy Recap

It took a while for the racing to get good, but once it did, there was quite a bit of excitement. There was a lot of passing, and side-by-side action in the last 40+ laps and of course some pretty impressive wrecks.

Kyle Busch was able to stay in front of the crashes and stay in front of Juan Pablo Montoya to get the victory. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was strong all race, but couldn’t pull off the win after getting involved in a wreck, and finished in a respectable 10th place.

The surprise finishes of the race had to be Juan Montoya taking 2nd place, David Ragan in 4th, and Brian Vickers in 5th. Good jobs by these guys, and let’s see if they can build on this for future races.

The four drivers with a real shot to win.
The four I said had a real shot to win did pretty good, according to the unofficial results. We’ll see if this changes at all after NASCAR posts the official results tomorrow.
Jimmy Johnson finished 11th.
Kurt Busch was in a wreck and ended up finishing 39th after fighting to get back on the lead lap.
Jeff Gordon finished 12th.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished 10th.

The two others that I said should do well,
Ryan Newman finished 8th after running up front most of the day.
Brian Vickers had a great run and finished 5th.


Fantasy Update
phin got the high point total of the week with 594, and move up 5 spots, all the way up to 39th.

Browngw got the low point total of the week with 275, forgetting to take Mark Martin off his team, and dropped 18 spots from 5th to 23rd….ouch!

The biggest position gainer was hollydiaz, moving up 7 spots to 20th.

Eliminator
Redvette won the eliminator! His driver, Tony Stewart, didn’t finish in the top 10, but he finished ahead of shocker, who forgot to pick their driver.

The next Eliminator game will start with the Coca-Cola 600 on May 25, and once again will be free.

Race 9 – Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Preview

Talladega is the biggest track on the circuit at 2.66 miles. It's a wide track that allows for some good side by side racing. Let's hope the boys have the new car figured out, and can make the racing good. I don't want to fall asleep during the race this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Will this be the race that Dale Earnhardt Jr. breaks his winless streak? Early in his career he dominated at Talladega. From 2001 – 2004 he had 5 wins, 2 second place finishes, and 1 eighth place finish. Since then he’s not been nearly as good, finishing 15th or worse (40th twice) from 2005 through the spring of 2007. In the fall race here last year, he finished in the top 10 taking home 7th.

He’s driving a lot better this year with Hendrick, and looks like a true contender for the title. We’ll see if he can get back to his old self and win the race.

Jimmy Johnson
He’s baaaack. He’s gotten himself back up to 4th in the standings with three consecutive top 5 finishes. Look for Jimmy to keep the domination going. He finished 2nd in the last two Talladega races and won the spring race in 2006, so he’ll be running with the lead dogs all race long.

Carl Edwards
If it weren’t for the 100 point deduction he’d be 2nd in the standings…although, after he got caught cheating he did poorly in Atlanta, but has bounced back since then. He’s finished in the top 10 in the last 3 races picking up a win in Texas. Talladega isn’t like the 1.5 mile ovals that Carl has been dominating at, so I don’t know if he’ll be a real threat to win the race. In 7 career races at Talladega, he only has three top 10’s and his best finish is 5th.

Drivers with a chance to win
· Jimmy Johnson – He is back, and in a big way. Look for Jimmy to show that he’s the man to beat. He has a 2nd, 2nd, and 1st in 3 of last 4 races here.
· Kurt Busch – Kurt has been pretty low key this year, all the way down in 16th place in the standings. I think he’ll be able to make some noise in Talladega. This track has been pretty good to him giving him a 7th, 3rd, 3rd, and 7th in last 4 races here.
· Jeff Gordon – Hey, he’s Jeff Gordon. He won both races here last year, has 6 career wins at the track, and 13 top 5s.
· Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 5 career wins at the track, racing for Hendrick now, and hasn’t won a race in 2 years. Look for him to end that this weekend.

Two others who could do well
· Ryan Newman – Talladega is fast and Newman loves to go fast. He’s finished 5th and 9th in last two here and 5 career top 10s. If he can avoid a wreck, then he should be in the front pack with a couple laps to go.
· Brian Vickers – Brian did well at Daytona, the only restrictor plate race so far this season, finishing 12th, and I look for him to challenge to get into the top 10 this week. He’s won and finished 3rd in 2 of the last four races here. In his career he’s been hit or miss, finishing 27th or worse 4 times, and top 10 the other 3 times. I say it’s time for another top 10 for Brian.

Race 8 – Subway Fresh 500 at Phoenix Preview

Well, let's hope the racing action in Phoenix is better than Texas. Last week was a snoozer of a race. The "experts" think that Phoenix will have 2 and 3 wide racing, giving it more action than the last couple of races. I don't know if I believe them or not. Texas was suppose to be an exciting race too, but it was far from it. ...on to the driver selections.

Jeff Burton is leading the points chase and historically he does pretty well at Phoenix. In his last six races here his worst finish has been 15th, so look for him to have a solid run this week.

Greg Biffle has been struggling lately finishing 20th and 39th in the last two races. Can his team turn it around? They’re usually hit and miss at this track. Over his last 6 trips to the track he’s finished as high as 2nd, and low as 41st. What’ll he do this week?? Who knows, but I won’t pick him for my fantasy team.

Can Jimmy Johnson continue his run of top 5 finishes? In the past two weeks he’s moved up 7 spots in the standings to 6th. Will be able to continue the momentum on Sunday? I think so. He’s finished in the top 10 in his last four races here, and top 5 in 3 of them.

Four drivers with a real shot to win
· Kevin Harvick – 6th, 10th, 1st, 1st in last 4. He qualified 17th, which isn’t great, but with his record at Phoenix you can’t go against him.
· Jimmy Johnson – 1st, 4th, 2nd, 7th, in last 4 here. After qualifying 7th, you should expect him to be in the lead pack all day long.
· Matt Kenseth – 3rd, 3rd, 5th in 3 of last 4. He qualified 27th and will need to get off to a good start, but he should be able to. If anything, his pit crew should be able to keep him on the lead lap for an extended period of time until the car is dialed in.
· Tony Stewart – 4th, 2nd, 2nd in 3 of last 4, qualifying 12th.

Two others that should do well:
· Jeff Burton – 9th, 10th, 9th in 3 of last 4. Qualifying 39th doesn’t help, but his average starting position this year is 21.4, and he usually ends up doing OK.
· Jeff Gordon – 10th, 1st, 4th in 1 of last 3 and qualified 11th.

Samsung 500 Review and Fantasy Recap

Carl Edwards was the car to beat, and dominated all day long. Kyle Busch and Jimmy Johnson tried to keep up with him in the race, but couldn’t get it done in the overtime laps.

The surprise finish of the race had to be Ryan Newman in 4th. This was only is 2nd top 5 finish of the season.

The drivers I said had a real shot to win did pretty bad.
Matt Kenseth did the best, finishing 5th.
Martin Truex Jr. had a top 10 run until his engine gave out with a few laps left.
Jeff Burton finished 6th.
Jeff Gordon was bad all day, and finished dead last.
Kevin Harvick did alright finishing 11th.

The two others that I said should do well, didn’t do so well
Jamie McMurray had a solid top 15 finish, placing 14th, helping him stay securely in the top 35 in standings.
Denny Hamlin had a good run finishing 5th.


On the fantasy side of things nascar_nug got the high point total with 580, moving up to 30th place. Buchsmoto is still leading the league by 45 points over highlife. Jusmony and Speedy both moved up 7 spots, to 3rd and 4th place.

jj24, who didn’t play the first week, and got 0 points, has overtaken Hessler for 48th place. Good job jj24! Hessler, you’re not so good.

7 races down, 19 to go until the chase begins. Check back on Friday or Saturday for a preview of the next race. As always, don’t be afraid to post your comments or send some mail through the website to talk some trash to the other players.

Race 7 – Samsung 500 Preview

For those people that keep track of the tire issues you’ll be happy to know that the much complained about tire used in the Atlanta race won’t be used in this race at Texas. Usually Goodyear uses the same tire, but this year they decided not to since there were so many complaints. The track owner is obviously happy about this, since the tire their going to use produced two great finishes last year.

After a 3rd place finish last week Jeff Burton jumped up 3 spots in the standings to take the lead. Over the past four races Jeff is averaging a 4.75 place finish, with one win. Texas is a track that Jeff has done well at over the past couple of years. He’s taken home two 6th place finishes and a win. With the hot streak he’s on, and the fact that the does well at Texas should be good news for Burton fans. Don’t let his 35th place qualifying effort scare you away. He’s only qualified better than 20th twice in Texas, and has done very well. This is a wide track that allows for some good racing. Jeff should be able to make his way to the front of the field.

Jeff Gordon had a good run last week and moved up to 9th in points, and looks to continue the trend at Texas. In the first four races at this track Jeff Gordon did horrible, not finishing better than 25th. The next four races he averaged a 3.25 place finish, but the three races after that (when they started having two races per year in Texas) he didn’t finish better than 14th. The good news is that over the last three races he’s averaged a 6.67 place finish. So, what does this mean? Well, it looks like Jeff is streaky here. He’s had three top 10 finishes in a row, is he now due for a run of bad luck in Texas? Jeff will start out in 18th, which isn’t great, but if they can perform some in race tweaks he should make it to the front.

With his win last week Denny Hamlin moved up the most spots in the championship standings, 7 places, up to 8th. He’s done well at this track in his career with 4 top 10’s in 5 tries. Look for him to continue to climb in the standings as his 14th place qualifying spot should let him get into the top 10 quickly and run there all day.

Drivers with a real shot to win
· Matt Kenseth – 2nd, 2nd, 2nd in 3 of last 4 and qualified 8th this week
· Martin Truex Jr. – 3rd, 7th, 8th in 3 of last 4, qualified 12th this week
· Jeff Burton – 6th, 1st, 6th in 3 of last 4, qualified 35th this week
· Jeff Gordon – 7th, 4th, 9th in last 3, qualified 18th this week
· Kevin Harvick – 10th, 3rd, 5th in 3 of last 4, qualified 21st this week

Two others that should do well:
o Jamie McMurray – 9th & 5th in last 2, qualified 32nd. He’ll have to make some moves early to get up in the standings, but his confidence has to be up after last week, and he should do well.
o Denny Hamlin – 9th, 4th, 10th in 3 of last 4, qualified 14th

Race 6 - Martinsville Recap & Fantasy Update

Well, Martinsville is in the books, and it went pretty much as planned.

My four drivers with a real shot to win did very well, and Denny Hamlin did win. In addition to Hamlin, Jimmy Johnson and Jeff Gordon finished in the top 4. Although, Kyle Busch had some issues and finished 38th.

The two others that I said should do well did pretty good. Kevin Harvick finished 12th, and Stewart 5th.

And the pick I really called was my Dark Horse, Jamie McMurray. He made me look like I actually know what I'm talking about and finished 8th. 18% of the fantasy teams did have McMurray on their team, so good job by them to pick up some points.

More Fantasy Notes:

• Irish had the high point total of the week, and also moved up the most spots, 14, to 22nd.
• FYYFF had a rough week, only getting 427 points and dropping 17 spots to 34th
• Hessler still sucks....he's still in 48th, on my advise to him to pick up Arik Almirola. Hey, jj24, when you going to pass this bum up?
• The top 4 spots are only separated by 111 points. It looks like it'll be a close race this year.
• Eliminator - After 2 weeks 17 players have been eliminated, and we have 8 left.

Race 6 – Goody’s Cool Orange 500 at Martinsville Preview

Kyle Busch is leading the points chase by 30 points over Greg Biffle. Historically Busch has done very well at Martinsville. He’s finished in the top 5 in his last four races here. He’s definitely the driver to beat in NASCAR right now, and every time he goes out to race he can win. This week is no exception. Expect Busch to be contending for the lead the entire race, and don’t be surprised to see him take home the checkered flag.

Ryan Newman, the Daytona 500 winner, was having a solid season, but slipped a little after last week’s disappointing 33rd place finish. He dropped 4 spots in the standings, down to 8th place. Will the week off allow him to regain the focus and be ready for this week’s race? He’s only finished in the top 10 at Martinsville once in the last 4 races here. That was a 2nd place finish in the Fall of ’07 race. I’ll be cheering for Newman since he’s a Purdue grad, but I don’t have a good feeling about this race. He did qualify 13th, which isn’t bad, but he’ll need to do some good driving and stay clean to have a shot at a top 10 finish, which isn’t really his specialty.

The big mover in the point standings the past couple weeks has been Clint Bowyer. After 3 races he was in 23rd place. After a 6th place finish at Atlanta he moved up to 16th, and after a 3rd place finish in Bristol he moved up to 9th. Can he continue his hot streak and gain more spots in the championship standings? He’s finished 11th and 9th in his last two races at Martinsville, and qualified 12th this week, so he could do well.

Four drivers with a real shot to win. I know there’s not much creativity in picking the favorites, but you have to go with who you really think will finish well.
· Jimmy Johnson – Won last 3, and finished 3rd in spring ’06. This should be the week he gets back on track. A 10th place starting spot should help with that.
· Jeff Gordon – 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 2nd in last 4, and the pole position for this week’s race. He’ll be tough to beat.
· Kyle Busch – 4th, 4th, 5th in 3 of last 4. 8th place qualifying spot. Has this guy had a bad showing yet this year?
· Denny Hamlin – 6th, 3rd, 2nd in last 3. Qualified 2nd and should be a contender all day.

Two others that should do well:
· Kevin Harvick – 10th, 9th, 7th in 3 of last 4. Qualified 11th. Kevin is always a threat to win, and should be running up front in this race.
· Tony Stewart – 7th, 4th, 1st in 3 of last 4. Starting in the 9th position should help Smoke get his 4th top 10 finish in 5 trips to Martinsville.

Darkhorse of the race:
· Jamie McMurray – Has 2 top 10 finishes in his last 4 at Martinsville and qualified 5th. Hopefully he’ll be able to break out of the awful slump he’s in.

Race 5 – Food City 500 Preview

Kyle Busch is leading the points chase has tore up Bristol lately. He’s averaged a 5th place finish in the last four races here. Look for that domination to continue on Sunday. Right now it looks like he could begin a streak of domination not seen since Jeff Gordon in the mid-to-late 90’s.

Qualifying position means a lot at Bristol. Since the track is only ½ mile, it’s easy for the 25th – 43rd place qualifiers to get a lap down early. Kyle Busch starts down in 22nd since qualifying was rained out, so he’ll have to get on the move fairly quick if he doesn’t want to fall a lap down early. With his aggressive driving style, he should be able to move people out of the way and get to the top.

Greg Biffle is kind of a surprise at second place in the standings. He’s had solid runs with two top 5’s, one top 10, and a 15th being his worst finish, in California. He’s done well at Bristol over the past two seasons, so there’s no reason to believe Sunday would be any different. Biffle should be a solid pick to finish in the top 10, and his 14th place starting spot should help him stay up with the leaders.

Right now Denny Hamlin is the lowest ranked driver that made the chase last year, in 19th place. He’s only had one top 10 finish this year which was a 9th in Las Vegas. A 12th place starting spot isn’t too bad, but Hamlin hasn’t done particularly well in Bristol, so don’t look for him to make much noise.

Normally a driver that would be an easy pick to win is Jeff Gordon. But his last win here was in 2002. He also does not have two consecutive top 10 finishes at Bristol since fall of ’01 and spring of ’02 (4th place & a win). In his last race at Bristol Jeff finished 3rd, so if history is any indicator, he’ll probably finish outside of the top 10 this week. He's starting 2nd, so if there’s ever a chance for him to get back-to-back top 10s this is it, but I’ll go with history on this one and say he finishes just outside the top 10.

Four drivers with a real shot to win
· Kyle Busch – 2nd, 8th, 9th, 1st in last 4 – starting 22nd this weekend
· Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 3rd, 5th, 7th in 3 of last 4 – starting 15th this weekend
· Carl Edwards – 7th, 4th, 1st in 3 of last 4 – starting 9th this weekend
· Greg Biffle – 7th, 10th, 5th in 3 of last 4 – starting 14th this weekend

Two others that should do well:
o Matt Kenseth – 1st & 3rd in 2 of last 4 – starting 4th this weekend
o Ryan Newman – 8th, 9th, 7th in 3 of last 4 – starting 13th this weekend

Kobalt Tools 500 Review and Fantasy Recap

Well, Kyle Busch proved me wrong, and raced a smart race and kept his car in front for the win. He dominated th