Who Will Make the 2012 NASCAR Chase?
Posted by chadmusselman on January 22nd, 2012
There have been a lot of drivers changing teams this off-season. This includes top-tier and middle-of-the-pack guys alike. Kurt Busch going to Phoenix Racing, A.J. Allmendinger to Penske, and Clint Bowyer to Michael Waltrip Racing are just a few examples that could mix up the chase picture in the 2012 season. Making the chase and winning the championship is the ultimate goal of every driver. Making the chase in one year should help a driver’s confidence and odds of making it the next, but of course there are no guarantees. On average, there is a 4.5 driver turnover per season in the chase. So, with that in mind, who will make the chase in 2012?
First, let’s take a look at the chasers from 2011 and see which of them can make it again in 2012.
Lock to make it:
- Tony Stewart: Stewart only missed the chase in 2006, and the defending champ is looking to repeat
- Carl Edwards: On the top of his game, Edwards will be in the chase again.
- Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has made all but one chase. Mr. Consistent will be there again in 2012.
- Jimmie Johnson: Is there any doubt that the 5-time champ would make it?
- Jeff Gordon: He’s Jeff Gordon, and he’s good.
- Denny Hamlin: Has made it every year he has been a full-time driver. No reason to think he won’t do it again.
Should be in:
- Kevin Harvick: Harvick missed the chase in 2004, 2005 & 2009, but looks to be in a groove now.
- Dale Earnhardt Jr: Earnhardt didn’t make it in 2005, 2007, 2009, & 2010, but may have things figured out with Hendrick Motorsports.
- Kyle Busch: Busch still annoys a lot of people, but he fact is that he’s very good, and is always a top bet to make the chase.
Out in 2012:
- Brad Keselowski: Keselowski caught fire to make the chase in 2011, but don’t count on that happening again.
- Ryan Newman: Newman has missed 4 of last 6 chases. Odds are pretty good he’ll miss it in 2012.
- Kurt Busch: Busch is a good driver, but his new team will probably not be able to get the job done.
We’ll have to assume that one of the “should be in” drivers doesn’t make it to get four new chasers in 2012, and be closer to the average turnover of 4.5 drivers. Who will the new chasers be?
New Chasers:
- A.J. Allmendinger: He has never made the chase yet in his career, but Allmendinger is getting better, and under Penske he should be in.
- Greg Biffle: After a tough 2011, Biffle will be out to show everyone he is still a top driver.
- Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a solid driver, and makes the chase about every other year. 2012 should be his year.
- Joey Logano: Logano is in a contract year and needs to prove he’s worth the money. He will.
Of course we won’t know for sure who makes it until September 10th, so it’s hard to tell who may go on another run like Brad Keselowski did in 2011. Until then, these are my predictions. Let me know who you think will or won’t make the chase in 2012.