Chad's Fantasy NASCAR Blog

For some of us all we have to look forward to come Fantasy NASCAR season is trying to have the coolest team name in our league.  Sure, you may finish in last place, but if there were payouts for best name, you would definitely be in the running for the top prize.  You want a name that isn’t too complex and hard to figure out, but it can’t be boring either.  There’s nothing better than being in first place, but being there with a cool name for everyone else to see is pretty good too.

There are a few different methods to picking team names.

Since it is NASCAR we’re talking about, most people like to integrate racing terms into their name like Speedy, <yourname>racing, etc.  Some of my favorites over the last couple years have been nakedonthetrack, blowntires, and poles_are_4_dancing.  Many also like to use their favorite driver’s car number, name, or nickname.  Ole Gordo, JrFan, Lowes, and silverfox for example, or my favorite, i_<3_dick_trickle.

Others like to use the names of their favorite sports teams, musicians, etc.  Not necessarily original, but you do let everyone else know where your heart is.

Then of course there are the wild card names that can come from anywhere; your own nickname, hobby or pretty much anything else.  Beertime, beachbums, and fishhook are a few of these types of teamnames that have played at Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR.  It’s always interesting to see the new and different names that everyone comes up with each season.  I always get a good chuckle when reading some of them.

So, how will you come up with your Fantasy NASCAR team name this season?  Are you a person that wants to use your favorite driver in your name?  If so, there is actually a webpage that can help you generate a name.  http://darrenfauth.com/generators/fantasy-nascar-team-name  (It looks like it’s been a few years since the name generator has been updated, but it has some good suggestions and could give you a head start on picking a name.)  This site: http://www.squidoo.com/fantasy-team-names has more naming strategies for all of your fantasy teams and how they like to pick something that will strike fear in your opponents.

Whatever name you come up with it should be something fun and entertaining.  Just using your name or some combination of it is boring. Challenge yourself a little to come up with something that will either make the other players laugh, or let them know more about you.  Tell them who you cheer for or make up some nickname.  No matter what you do have fun with it and enjoy the upcoming season!

There have been a lot of drivers changing teams this off-season.  This includes top-tier and middle-of-the-pack guys alike.  Kurt Busch going to Phoenix Racing, A.J. Allmendinger to Penske, and Clint Bowyer to Michael Waltrip Racing are just a few examples that could mix up the chase picture in the 2012 season.  Making the chase and winning the championship is the ultimate goal of every driver.  Making the chase in one year should help a driver’s confidence and odds of making it the next, but of course there are no guarantees.  On average, there is a 4.5 driver turnover per season in the chase.  So, with that in mind, who will make the chase in 2012?

First, let’s take a look at the chasers from 2011 and see which of them can make it again in 2012.

Lock to make it:

-     Tony Stewart: Stewart only missed the chase in 2006, and the defending champ is looking to repeat
-     Carl Edwards: On the top of his game, Edwards will be in the chase again.
-     Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has made all but one chase.  Mr. Consistent will be there again in 2012.
-     Jimmie Johnson:  Is there any doubt that the 5-time champ would make it?
-     Jeff Gordon: He’s Jeff Gordon, and he’s good.
-     Denny Hamlin: Has made it every year he has been a full-time driver.  No reason to think he won’t do it again.

Should be in:

-     Kevin Harvick: Harvick missed the chase in 2004, 2005 & 2009, but looks to be in a groove now.
-     Dale Earnhardt Jr: Earnhardt didn’t make it in 2005, 2007, 2009, & 2010, but may have things figured out with Hendrick Motorsports.
-     Kyle Busch: Busch still annoys a lot of people, but he fact is that he’s very good, and is always a top bet to make the chase.

Out in 2012:

-     Brad Keselowski: Keselowski caught fire to make the chase in 2011, but don’t count on that happening again.
-     Ryan Newman: Newman has missed 4 of last 6 chases.  Odds are pretty good he’ll miss it in 2012.
-     Kurt Busch: Busch is a good driver, but his new team will probably not be able to get the job done.

We’ll have to assume that one of the “should be in” drivers doesn’t make it to get four new chasers in 2012, and be closer to the average turnover of 4.5 drivers.  Who will the new chasers be?

New Chasers:

-     A.J. Allmendinger: He has never made the chase yet in his career, but Allmendinger is getting better, and under Penske he should be in.
-     Greg Biffle: After a tough 2011, Biffle will be out to show everyone he is still a top driver.
-     Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a solid driver, and makes the chase about every other year.  2012 should be his year.
-     Joey Logano: Logano is in a contract year and needs to prove he’s worth the money.  He will.

Of course we won’t know for sure who makes it until September 10^th, so it’s hard to tell who may go on another run like Brad Keselowski did in 2011.  Until then, these are my predictions.  Let me know who you think will or won’t make the chase in 2012.

The contract was signed way back in April of 2010, but didn’t take effect until this offseason.  Everyone has heard about it for more than a year and a half now, and finally, Kasey Kahne is driving for Hendrick Motorsports.  Kahne is taking over Mark Martin’s 2011 ride in the No. 5 car.  Back when the signing was announced I posed two questions; did Rick Hendrick sign NASCAR’s most disappointing driver? And, Can Hendrick Motorsports make him better?  This post will take a closer look at the latter by diving into Kahne’s career numbers and seeing what needs to improve before he can become a serious threat to make the chase year-in and year-out.

If you look at the numbers by themselves across Kahne’s eight year career they are not too bad; 288 races, 12 wins, and 102 top ten finishes.  It’s when you start looking at the races where Kahne didn’t finish in the top ten that they don’t look so impressive.

Kahne needs to learn how to manage an ill handling car and coax it around the track without tearing it apart, causing a wreck, or getting caught up in someone else’s mess.  Finishing out of the top twenty 41% of the time is unacceptable if you want to contend for the chase.  People always talk about top five and top ten finishes, which are important, but not finishing outside of the top twenty is also important.  If the goal for Kasey Kahne is to make the chase, then we need to compare him to the other drivers that made the chase.  Let’s take a look at the 2011 chasers and see what their career numbers look like for finishing outside of the top twenty.

As you can see, besides Brad Keselowski and his great run of 2011, all of the chasers finish outside of the top twenty 35% of the time or less, and their cumulative average is only 27.8%.  If Kahne can improve his numbers to match the other contenders, his chances of making the chase would improve significantly.  This means that instead of averaging 15 races outside the top twenty per season Kahne can only afford to do it 11 or 12 times.  It may not sound like much, but with the new point system it would be huge.  With four less finishes outside of the top twenty Kahne could realistically accumulate 20 – 40 more championship points, which could easily be the difference between making the chase and battling for 13^th position.

Now, we know the problem, but can it be fixed?  It will not be an easy task for Kahne and the race team to accomplish.  It’s easy to say that you need to eliminate bad finishes, but if it were easy everyone would be able to do it.  The Hendrick Motorsports equipment at Kahne’s disposal will be the best of his career, so there should be no issues there.  Ultimately it will be up to the driver to adjust to the race car and ensure it makes it to the end of the race in decent position.  He can’t afford to push a car too hard that does not have a top ten finish in it.  That would cause more problems than the team needs.  On the plus side Kahne is sharing a garage with Jeff Gordon.  Any time you get to pick the brain of a 4-time champion it should be a good day.  Although, so far in his career it doesn’t seem like Jeff has been good at mentoring, or passing on wisdom.  Maybe since he’s getting a little older and seems to have the fire back, he will be able to help Kahne out a bit more with race strategy and how to handle cars that are a little off.

What are your thoughts?  Will Kahne make the chase and fulfill some of his potential now that he’s with Hendrick Motorsports, or will he continue to be a disappointment?

The NFL playoffs are getting started, and we’re seven weeks away from the Daytona 500.  Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR is ready for its 8^th year of Fantasy NASCAR fun, and the 2012 season.  Last year more than 200 people played, and the overall champ took home $1000! 

This year we’ll have the largest payouts ever with the overall champion guaranteed $1500!!  League champions are still guaranteed $100!  Tell others that you know would want to play and let them in on the fun.

The NASCAR season starts on Feb. 26^th in Daytona, so you have plenty of time to sign up and set your team.

Recruit More Players
As always, we need your help to recruit as many people to play as you can.  The more we get to play, the more fun it will be.  We ask you to tell others about the website and encourage them to sign up.  The goal is to double the number of players and have over 400 so we can have about 10 leagues and keep the payouts high.

Link to the site: http://chadsfantasynascar.com

How to sign up

• Online with a Credit Card or using your PayPal account
• Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR costs $20.95.
• The credit card processing is secure and run through PayPal, so we never see your card number.
• If you played last year you can use your existing id and password by logging in at http://chadsfantasynascar.com (If you can’t remember your password there’s a “forgot password” link that you can use to have a new, random password mailed to you.)
• If you didn’t play last year and want to sign up, you can use this link: http://chadsfantasynascar.com/pswd/signup.cgi
• After you sign up online you will be able to start picking your drivers instantly.

Any winnings or credits you received last year, and not paid via PayPal were carried over to 2012 and your price will be discounted accordingly.

Payouts
The winner of each league is guaranteed $100, and the overall champion is guaranteed $1500!  You can see all of the payout info on the site at: http://chadsfantasynascar.com/payouts.cgi

Rules
The rules are simple.  You get 4 drivers.  How ever many points they score in the race is how many points you get.  Easy!  The only catch is that you can only have 1 driver on your team that made the chase last year.  You’ll get trades each week, so you can change the drivers throughout the season.  To see the official rules you can use the following link: http://chadsfantasynascar.com/rules.cgi  

Updates For 2012

Perfect Week Pool: This year we are introducing the perfect week pool.  This is a pool of money that will go to the first team that picks the drivers that will finish 1^st, 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th in a race.  The pool will start at $100 this season and increase by $2 each week until someone wins.  If no one wins, then the pool is rolled over into the next season.

Mobile Site: We are in the process of creating mobile web site for those of you with smart phones.  On the site you’ll be able to update your team, view the standings and track stats, and more.

Social Media Sites: Chad’s Fantasy NASCAR is now on Facebook, Twitter, and Google+.  Follow us to get the latest updates and information for the league.

Here’s to another exciting season of NASCAR racing.

Good luck, and Happy Racin’

Confused with all of the driver, crew chief, and sponsor changes since last season?  Don’t worry, we have it all sorted out for you.  Most of the changes have happened in the off-season, but there were quite a few that started during the 2011 season, and even before.  Don’t worry though; you don’t have to read through all of the articles and press releases to get up to date on what drivers have changed teams, and who’s sponsoring them.  I’ve already done that.  Below is a list of drivers and teams that are making changes in personnel and/or sponsors for the 2012 season.  Is your favorite driver on the list, or did I miss anyone?  Leave a reply and let me know.

Drivers

Kurt Busch – There probably wasn’t a bigger name driver changing teams this off-season.  Busch’s trouble with the press in 2011 was well documented, and captured on video.  He and Penske claimed a mutual parting on December 5^th.  Since Busch left Penske with four years remaining on his contracts it is believed that he gave up $40 Million in salary.   Busch has now picked up a ride with Phoenix Racing.  He will be driving the No. 51 car, which was Landon Cassill’s ride in 2011.  This should be a shot in the arm to Phoenix Racing.  They have never come close to having a driver with talent like Kurt.  They will have work to do to build a contending team around the 2004 Cup Champion.  This is a one year deal for Busch, and is for the full 36-race schedule.  Nick Harrison will be his crew chief.

A.J. Allmendinger – Allmendinger left Richard Petty Motorsports after they were initially looking to sign Kurt Busch, and because his No. 43 car had no sponsorship for the 2012 season.  (Best Buy left Richard Petty Motorsports to go to Foush Fenway Racing.)  That may have been a great move on Allmendinger’s part as he will now fill the No. 22 car that Kurt Busch left open after splitting with Penske Racing.  This may only be a one year contract, but it sounds like they’re going to work on making it a long-term deal.  Todd Gordon will be the crew chief. 

Aric Almirola – After running full-time in the Nationwide Series in 2010, and finishing fourth in the standings, Almirola has now been signed with Richard Petty Motorsports to drive the No. 43 car.  Smithfield’s, a meat company, is expected to be at least a partial sponsor for the car.  Last year’s sponsor, Best Buy, is no longer with RPM.

David Ragan – Ragan’s No. 6 team was dismantled by Roush Fenway racing, so Ragan asked for his release and it was granted, even though there were still a few years left on his contract.  Ragan wanted to go to Penske and race the No. 22 car, but that didn’t work out.  Ragan has now signed with Front Row Motorsports to race the No. 34 Ford that David Gilliland was in last year.  His crew chief will be Jay Guy.  No sponsorship has been announced yet.

David Gilliland – Gilliland will stay with Front Row Motorsports, but will run the No. 38 car in 2012, and Derrick Finley will be his crew chief.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Since Ragan is no longer in the No. 6 car, Stenhouse Jr. will drive it for the Daytona 500.  No word if he will driver other Sprint Cup races in the car.

Jeff Burton – RCR has named Drew Blickensderfer as the new crew chief for Burton and the No. 31 team.  Blickensderfer comes from the disbanded No. 6 team of Roush Fenway Racing.  General Mills will be sponsoring Burton for the 2012 season, coming from the No. 33 car that Bowyer left.  Wheaties will be the main brand that General Mills advertises.  BB&T Corporation will also be a sponsor on the car for five races in 2012.

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer has left Richard Childress Racing and signed with Michael Waltrip Racing; scheduled to drive the No. 15 car sponsored by 5-hour Energy.  Brian Pattie will be his crew chief.  This is a pretty big get for Michael Waltrip as Bowyer is definitely a driver that can battle to make the chase and bring more sponsor dollars.  No terms of the contract were disclosed, but it must have been for quite a bit.  Richard Childress made a comment that he could not afford to keep Bowyer and pay the salary that Michael Waltrip Racing offered.

Austin Dillon – Dillon, Richard Childress’ grandson, may drive a handful of Cup races in 2012 for Richard Childress Racing in Clint Bowyer’s former ride, the No. 33 car if they don’t find a driver to run full-time.

Michael Waltrip & Mark Martin – Both drivers will race the No. 55 car in 2012 for Michael Waltrip Racing.  Martin will compete in 25 Cup races and Waltrip will compete in seven.  Aaron’s will be the primary sponsor.  There will be a combination of other drivers and sponsors for the four races that Waltrip and Martin are not competing.

David Reutimann – Reutimann was let go from Michael Waltrip Racing, even though he had one more year on his contract, to make room for Mark Martin.  Reutimann has now signed with Tommy Baldwin Racing for 26 races in the 2012 season.  Reutimann will race the second car for Tommy Baldwin with David Blaney keeping his ride in the first car.  The team has said that this will not be a start-and-park car.  The car number and sponsor are still being worked out.  Tommy Baldwin will serve as Reutimann’s crew chief.

Joey Logano – Since Zipadelli left Joe Gibbs Racing, Jason Ratcliff will replace him as Logano’s crew chief.  Dollar General has also signed on to be the primary sponsor for 12 Cup races for Logano’s car No. 20.

Tony Stewart – Stewart let Darrien Grubb, his crew chief, go and hired Steve Addington to fill the role in 2012.  Addington previously worked for Penske Racing and the No. 22 that Kurt Busch drove in 2011.

Denny Hamlin – Mike Ford, Hamlin’s crew chief since 2005 was let go.  Word is that Joe Gibbs Racing will go for Darrien Grubb (won the title as Tony Stewart’s crew chief in 2011) to replace him.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe received multi-year extensions with Penske Racing.  Keselowski’s original contract was up at the end of the 2011 season.

Kevin Harvick – Richard Childress Racing announced that Shane Wilson will be Harvick’s crew chief in 2012.

Juan Montoya – Montoya’s contract with Earnhardt Ganassi was up after the 2011 season, but he has re-signed with the team for 2012.  No word on the length of the contract.  Chris Heroy will be the crew chief for Montoya in 2012.

Bobby Labonte – Labonte will stay with JTG Daugherty Racing after they left as a satellite operation to Michael Waltrip Racing.  Daugherty’s team has their own shop now, and Labonte will be their driver while Todd Berrier will serve as the crew chief.  After announcing the move Daugherty had some critical words for Michael Waltrip Racing as well as his own team. “I’ve been very disappointed in what we’ve done this year,” Daugherty said. “We’re embedded in the Michael Waltrip program, and as they have gone, we have gone. As they have faltered, we have faltered. … We qualify decently and run OK for a while, but once we start adjusting our race car, it seems like we just go back, back, back. I don’t think we can be any worse. … I don’t think we can do any worse, to be honest with you.”

Brian Vickers – Vickers lost his ride after Red Bull shut their doors to NASCAR.

Kasey Kahne – It’s been planned for over a year now that Kahne would take over the No. 5 car of Hendrick Motorsports in 2012.  Farmers Insurance will be the primary sponsor for 22 races in the 2012 – 2014 seasons.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt signed a five year extension with Hendrick Motorsports, so he’ll now be with the team through the 2017 season.

Danica Patrick – Patrick will attempt to qualify for 10 Sprint Cup races in 2012 in the No. 10 car for Stewart-Haas Racing.  Greg Zipadelli will be her crew chief.  Zipadelli was released from his Joe Gibbs Racing contract to go back to Tony Stewart and Stwart-Haas Racing as the competition director.  There is an interesting quote from Patrick about not moving from Arizona to Charlotte to be closer to her team for the upcoming season and 43 races she’ll run.  “I’m always available by phone and if they need me to fly to Charlotte that’s exactly what I’ll do. But I don’t feel the need to set-up shop [near Charlotte] — I don’t get that many days off [smiling] so to be honest I probably wouldn’t be at the shop that many days.”  She won’t stop by the shop that many days?  Hmm.  Doesn’t sound like a winning attitude to me.  Sounds like someone that is after the money and marketing.

Scott Speed – Speed will race for Leavine Family Racing in 2012.  He will be in the No. 95 car running a 15 race schedule in 2012.

Kenny Wallace – Wallace will be driving for RAB Racing and attempt to qualify their No. 09 Toyota for the Daytona 500.  American Ethanol will be the sponsor.  The crew chief has not been announced yet. 

Tim Andrews – Andrews will debut at Bristol in March for the Go Green team.  His father Paul Andrews will be his crewchief.  The team will get cars from Rouch Racing.  No information has been released about sponsors or the car number.  They will try to qualify for 10 – 12 races focusing on short-tracks.

J.J. Yeley – Yeley has signed with the new Robinson-Blakeney Racing team.  He will drive a full season in the No. 49 Toyota with Tony Furr as the crew chief.

Elliott Sadler & Brendan Gaughan – Both drivers will share the Richard Childress Racing No. 33 car for the first five races of the season.  Sadler will run at Daytona, and Gaughan the other four.  Gil Martin will serve as the crew chief.  General Mills will be the sponsor for the Daytona 500 and South Point Casino for the other four races.

Sponsors

Best Buy – Best Buy will be a part-time, primary sponsor of two Roush Fenway Racing cars in 2012.  Matt Kenseth and the No. 17 Ford for nine races as well as Carl Edwards and the No. 99 Ford for two races. In addition, Best Buy will serve as associate sponsor for each.

Sprint – Sprint has renewed its agreement with NASCAR to be the title sponsor through the 2016 season.  No financial terms were disclosed.

UPS – UPS will not be a primary sponsor in 2012.  Instead they will be an associate sponsor for Carl Edwards.  This is one of the reasons Roush Fenway Racing had to disband the No. 6 team. 

Crown Royal – Like UPS, Crown Royal will not be a primary sponsor in 2012 for Roush Fenway Racing.  Because of this Matt Kenseth is looking for a new sponsor.  Crown Royal will put their focus on sponsoring the Brickyard 400.

Quicken Loans – Quicken Loans is new to NASCAR and will sponsor Ryan Newman’s No. 39 car for nine races in 2012.  They will also be an associate sponsor for Newman for the races they’re not primary, and be an associate sponsor for Tony Stewart the entire 2012 season.

General Mills – Richard Childress Racing announced that the sponsor of the No. 33 car in 2011 will move to the No. 31 of Jeff Burton in 2012.  Wheaties will be the main brand that General Mills will advertise.

Dollar General – The discount store has signed with Joe Gibbs Racing to sponsor 12 Cup races for the No. 20 car driven by Joey Logano, and a full Nationwide Series schedule for driver Brian Scott.

Goodyear – In October of 2011 NASCAR announced a contract extension with Goodyear to have them provide tires to the top three NASCAR circuits through the 2017 season.

Red Bull – It’s been well documented that 2011 was the last for Red Bull in NASCAR.  Their departure leaves Brian Vickers without a ride, and Kasey Kahne was already under contract with Hendrick Motorsports for 2012.

Pepsi – The soft drink manufacturer currently sponsors the Hendrick Motorsports No. 88 car driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr.  Pepsi was pushing the Amp Energy Drink brand in 2011, but that will change to Diet Mt. Dew for 16 races in 2012.  Amp will be on the hood for four races in 2012.  Also noteworthy is that 2012 is the final year of the current contract between Hendrick Motorsports and Pepsi.  The sponsorship was valued at $25 million to $30 million to be the primary sponsor for 20 races on the No. 88 car.

Lowe’s – nascar.com has a great article about how the Lowe’s sponsorship of Jimmie Johnson came about.  http://www.nascar.com/news/110914/jjohnson-lowes-success/index.html  In in they say that, “Lowe’s agreed to pay each crew member $480 every time they won a race and offered the pit crew $480 every time they turned in a pit stop under a specified time, Tillman said. The company even agreed to give crew chief Chad Knaus a Porsche for the team’s first top-five finish and Johnson a power boat for his first victory.”  In 2009, it signed a three-year renewal with Johnson and maintained its position as primary sponsor for all 36 races.

3M – Roush Fenway Racing signed a three year extension with 3M to remain a primary sponsor.

Golden Corral – The restaurant is not renewing their sponsorship with Tommy Baldwin Racing in 2012.

Farmers Insurance – In June of 2011 Farmers Insurance agreed to sponsor the Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 car for the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons.

BB&T Corporation - Has renewed with Richard Childress Racing for the 2012 season.  They will be the primary sponsor of Jeff Burton’s No. 31 car for five races.

We wanted to let you know that we now have someone new hosting our blog.  This will allow us to save some money and have greater control over the blog site.  You shouldn’t see much different with the blog since the address is staying the same (http://blog.chadsfantasynascar.com).  We have added an alternate address of http://blog.musclenascar.com as well for those of you that may have issues getting to the site due to your work’s firewall blocking it.

Some of you that have an email subscription to the blog may need to re-subscribe to get your normal updates.

As always, let us know if you have any questions or issues.

Thanks,
Chad

Each year, before the season starts, I make my NASCAR predictions on who will win the championship, the most races, etc.  Sometimes the predictions come true and sometimes they are way off.  Let’s take a look at this year’s and see how they turned out.

Champion: Prediction: Jimmie Johnson   Actual: Tony Stewart
What can I say?  I went with the safe bet and was wrong.  Jimmie had his “worst” year ever in NASCAR with career lows in point standings (6^th) and wins (2).  His average starting position of 12.9 was his worst since 2002.  To my defense, I did say that I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Carl Edwards won the championship.  He tied for it, so I guess that doesn’t really count.  Congrats to Tony Stewart and his great run in the Chase.  Maybe we should have known he would break Jimmie Johnson’s streak since he was the driver that won the championship back in 2005, before Johnson’s amazing run began.

Most Disappointing: Prediction: Clint Bowyer
I was pretty close on this one.  Bowyer did not make the chase, and finished 13^th in points.  I thought he may be further down in 15^th – 20^th, but overall it wasn’t a good year for Bowyer.  He had 16 top ten finishes in 2011.  The only time he had fewer in a full season was 2006, his first one as a full-time driver.  Bowyer will have to work hard to get back in the chase.

Most Surprising: Prediction: A.J. Allmendinger
I think my prediction of Allmendinger’s season was a darn good one.  He didn’t have to make the chase to be surprising, but he almost did it anyway.  Also, finishing 15^th is a good accomplishment for Allmendinger.  He’s improved each season of his career, and should be a legitimate contender to make the chase next season.

Rookie Of The Year: Prediction: Trevor Bayne    Actual: Andy Lally
Winning the Daytona 500 is a great way to start off your career!  Officially, Bayne wasn’t a rookie in 2011, but how can you say he wasn’t the best first year driver out there?  NASCAR has recognized Andy Lally as the 2011 Rookie Of The Year.  He won by default since he was the only official rookie racing in the Sprint Cup Series.  Lally averaged a 30.8 place finish in 2011 while Bayne averaged a 25.8 place finish.  Both have a ways to go, but Bayne got the big win and shows a lot of promise.

Comeback Driver: Prediction: Brian Vickers    Actual: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
It can be hard to judge the comeback driver of the year, but it’s safe to say that , although Vickers does have a great story with his comeback, his performances on the track weren’t good enough.  Dale Earnhardt Jr. on the other hand, really stepped up in 2011 and proved that he is still a good driver and can contend with the elite.  Earnhardt made the chase and finished 7^th, right in between his teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

Most Wins: Prediction: Tony Stewart     Actual: Tony Stewart
Nailed it!  Five wins for Stewart gets him the award for most wins this season.  The amazing part is that he did this in the Chase, propelling himself to the championship.  Stewart really is a great driver, and I guess we can now call him a pretty good owner.

Back in January of this year I asked the question, “Will 2011 be Dale Earnhardt Jr’s year?”  I emphatically said “No”, and that Earnhardt has already peaked and should hope the rest of his career doesn’t end up like Kyle Petty’s.  I also said the changes Hendrick was putting in place to get Earnhardt back into the chase would hurt the rest of the team.  Boy was I wrong about Earnhardt.

The 2011 season has easily been the best for Earnhardt since 2008.  He showed that he can still run with the elite drivers, staying in the top ten in points almost all season and making the chase.  Sure, he didn’t make much noise in the chase, but that’s not the point.  The point is that he made it and finished 7^th in points, by far better than I ever thought.  Earnhardt didn’t get that elusive win, but he did finish in the top five 4 times and in the top ten 12 times.  That’s the most since the 2008 season.  His 14.6 place average finish in 2011 is also his best since the 2008 season.

To add to the success on the track for Earnhardt, he signed a contract extension with Hendrick Motorsports through the 2017 season.  Rick Hendrick was talking about the contract extension at the beginning of the season, at which time I said he should be looking to let the current contract expire and dump Earnhardt.  Well, if this season is any indicator of what’s to come, Rick Hendrick once again made the right decision by finalizing Jr’s contract in early September.

One member of the Hendrick stable that could have been negatively affected by the changes that Hendrick instituted was Mark Martin.  In the pit crew and team shuffle, Earnhardt got Jeff Gordon’s 2010 team, Jeff Gordon got Mark Martin’s 2010 team, and Mark Martin got Earnhardt’s 2010 team.  Mark Martin easily had one of his worst seasons in recent years.  Martin finished 22nd in points (worst since 2008), has only 2 top five and 10 top ten finishes.  You would have to go back to the mid to late 1980’s to find a season that Mark Martin had fewer top five and top ten finishes.  His 18.2 place average finish was his worst since 2003.  Not a good season for Martin no matter how you look at it.

Maybe this helps answer part of the question, is it the driver, the car, or the pit crew that wins championships?  This shows that Earnhardt was probably working with an inferior team for a couple years before getting Jeff Gordon’s old team.  Mark Martin may be getting older, but he’s still a quality driver and the drop-off from 2010 to 2011 was significant.  I guess we know who Rick Hendrick can let go at the end of the season.  I wouldn’t want Kasey Kahne to inherit a team with that bad of a record.

Earnhardt has to be very happy about 2011, looking forward to making more strides in 2012 and getting his first win since the 2008 season.  Dale, I promise you one thing; I won’t write anything stating 2012 will be a bad season for you and that you’re washed up.  You definitely proved this year that you don’t have to get by on your popularity and you are a true contender for the championship.

It all comes down to this race!  Only three points separate Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.  Can Stewart get the job done and pass Edwards in the last race to win the Championship?  Is it possible for them to be tied in points at the end of the race and have to go to a tie-breaker to see who wins the championship?  Stewart has more victories this season, so the edge should go to him.  Don’t plan on any of the drivers challenging Stewart or Edwards for position on the track.  No one wants to be the guy that wrecked them, destroying their chance at a title.  They will be the only ones racing each other hard in the final race.  With that in mind it should be no surprise who I’m picking as my chaser, and alternate chaser this week.

This Week’s Recommendations

Chaser: Carl Edwards
If past history at Homestead-Miami Speedway is any indicator, Carl Edwards should hang on to his slim points lead and win the championship.  Edwards has the best average finish at the track (5.7) and two career victories here as well.  In his seven career races Edwards has four top five and six top ten finishes.  His only finish outside of the top ten was his first race here in 2004 when he finished 14^th.  I think it’s safe to say Edwards will get a top ten finish.  The question is, can Stewart do much more to put pressure on him?

Alternate Chaser: Tony Stewart
If anyone can do it, Stewart can.  He, like Edwards, has two wins in Homestead-Miami.  Stewart also has three top five and six top ten finishes to go with the wins, in 12 career races.  His average finish of 12.4 isn’t quite as good as Edwards, but it’s not too shabby.  Given the fact that Stewart is trying to win his third NASCAR championship and drivers will be giving him plenty of room to run around the track, he should be a top ten finisher this week.  Again, the question is, will it be enough to win the title.  He may have to win the race, and lead the most laps to get it done; especially if Edwards is on his tail in 2^nd or 3^rd place.

A.J. Allmendinger
Believe it or not, A.J. Allmendinger owns the third best average finish at this track among active drivers.  In his three career races here Allmendinger is averaging an 8.7 place finish.  He’s finished 11^th, 10^th, and 5^th in those races.  Allmendinger is 16^th in points, only 3 away from Greg Biffle in 15^th.  He will be pushing hard to pick up another spot in the standings and finish a very respectable 15^th.  Also, Allmendinger has been one of the hottest drivers lately, averaging a 13^th place finish over the last five races.  There’s no reason to believe he won’t contend for another top ten finish this weekend.

Martin Truex Jr.
Truex Jr. has a top ten finish in the last three races, and four of the last five at Homestead-Miami.  He’s averaging an 11.7 place finish in his 6 race career at the track; good enough for sixth best among active drivers.  Just over 12% of you had Truex on your team last week when he finished 20^th.  This looks to be a better track for Truex and he should contending for a top ten finish and get you more points this week.

Dark Horse: Jeff Burton
Burton finds himself down in 23^rd place.  Way too low for a driver of his caliber.  He has turned it around a little over the past five races.  In that span he’s averaging an 11.7 place finish with two top five and three top ten finishes.  Burton has also had some success at Miami-Homestead in his career with four top five and five top ten finishes.  I’m sure Burton will be glad the 2011 season is over after the race, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be fighting for another quality run and keeping momentum for the 2012 season.

Only two races left and three points separating Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart.  Tony Stewart has really turned on the jets in the Chase amassing four wins in the eight races so far.  This should be one of the most exciting finishes to the season ever!  I have to give NASCAR kudos for the change in the point system and making every race of the season count for the championship.  There won’t be anyone wrapping up the title a race or two before the end of the season anymore.

The next to last race is in Phoenix, a relatively flat 1 mile tri-oval.  Ten of the chasers have won here in the past and only two regular drivers not in the chase have won a race here.  The main theme for picking drivers this week will be who’s been hot recently.  Most of the picks this week have a high average finish over the last five races.

This Week’s Recommendations:

Chaser: Jimmie Johnson
Okay, so Jimmie Johnson hasn’t exactly torn it up over the last five races, but dog-gone it, he’s really awesome at Phoenix.  He leads all active drivers with four wins here, and also has 11 top five and 14 top ten finishes in only 16 career races.  That’s right; Johnson has only finished outside of the top ten twice in his career at Phoenix.  He won’t win his 6^th consecutive title, but he very well can win the race this weekend.

Alternate Chaser: Tony Stewart
It’s harder to get hotter than Stewart is right now.  He has won two in a row and finished in the top ten in four straight.  Stewart is only three points out of the lead and charging hard.  He’s going to be very focused and determined to get ahead of Carl Edwards before the final race in Homestead.  And, don’t forget that Stewart has won here before, collecting 7 top five and 10 top ten finishes along the way.  In 19 career races you may not think that’s very impressive, but I don’t know how you can go against the run Stewart is on right now.  He was on less than 10% of the fantasy teams last week, so pick him up this week and get those points you missed.

Kasey Kahne
Kahne has averaged an 8^th place finish over the last five races, good enough for 3^rd best.  He’s really doing a good job of building confidence and proving that Rick Hendrick is getting a quality driver for the 2012 season.  In 14 career races at Phoenix Kahne has only finished in the top ten four times with one top five, but you can throw those numbers out.  He’s on a great run right now with five top ten finishes in the last six races.  That should be good enough of a run to put Kahne on your team and ride the streak. 

Greg Biffle
Biffle is the 4^th hottest driver over the last five races, averaging an 11.4 place finish.  His average finish at Phoenix isn’t too bad either (14.9).  Biffle has had success here in the past with four top five and five top ten finishes in 15 races.  He’s usually in the top fifteen at the track and should be again, and contending for another top ten finish. 

Dark Horse: Mark Martin
Okay, so Mark Martin hasn’t been hot of late, but I can’t ignore his record at Phoenix.  He’s averaging an 8.8 place finish with two wins, 12 top five, and 19 top ten finishes in 29 career races.  Only Jimmie Johnson has a better average finish than Martin.  I think Mart Martin has too much pride and is too good of a driver to mail in the final two races of the season.  He should show some life this weekend and have a shot at the top ten when the race is winding down.